Predictions, picks for Utah vs. Cincinnati Week 10 college football matchup

Predictions from prognosticators and advanced metric websites vary

Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham leads his team into a top-25 battle against the Cincinnati Bearcats. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

A monumental showdown in the Big 12 between Utah and Cincinnati is set to take college football's center stage on Saturday.

Conference title and College Football Playoff aspirations will be on the line as two of the league's top offenses go head-to-head in a prime time showdown from Rice-Eccles Stadium, where the Utes (6-2, 3-2) will look to defend home turf against a Bearcats squad (7-1, 5-0) that rides a seven-game win streak into the matchup.

As pivotal as the Week 10 tilt is shaping up to be, sportsbooks have set quite a wide spread in favor of Utah heading into Saturday. After Cincinnati running back Evan Pryor was ruled "out" in the team's initial availability report, the Utes were bumped up from 7.5 to 10.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Meanwhile, predictions from prognosticators and advanced metric websites vary. The one constant theme tying them together is their belief in Utah being able to get a pivotal win at home and keep its fleeting Big 12 championship hopes alive in the process.

Here's a look at how national media outlets and predictive algorithms foresee Saturday's contest playing out.

Bleacher Report: Utah 34, Cincinnati 28

Bleacher Report's David Kenyon considers Utah "may be starting to peak at a prime moment" following its 53-7 victory over Colorado last week in his Week 10 picks article.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Utah has 80.5% chance to win

ESPN's matchup predictor has been more favorable to the Utes since the start of the season, and that trend continues heading into their Week 10 matchup against the Bearcats. Utah has a staggering win probability rate of 80.5% over Cincinnati, according to ESPN's advanced algorithm.

ESPN analytics favored the Utes in five of their 12 regular-season games heading into the 2025 campaign. With four regular season games remaining, Utah has at least a 75% win probability rate in each matchup.

ESPN SP+: Utah 31, Cincinnati 22

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, predicts Utah will earn its first win by single-digits this season in a 9-point victory over Cincinnati.

Connelly's metrics-based formulas have accurately predicted the winner in six of Utah's eight games so far this season, with the exception being its losses to Texas Tech and BYU.

Fox Sports: Utah 34, Cincinnati 19

Using a betting model from Data Skrive, Fox Sports projects that not only will Utah beat Cincinnati, but that the Utes will also cover the double-digit spread set by a majority of sportsbooks. It also gives the Utes a 79.3% chance of winning outright.

Pro Football Sports Network: Utah 34, Cincinnati 31

The smallest forecasted margin on this list has the Utes defeating the Bearcats by 3 points. Considering both offenses put up well over 30 points on average, a shootout between the two teams wouldn't come as the most shocking outcome. Utah ranks No. 2 in the Big 12 at 38.9 points per game, followed closely by Cincinnati at No. 3 with 38.3 points per contest.

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Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.