Did Vanderbilt’s CFP Chances Improve After Conference Championship Saturday?

With 10 wins in the toughest conference in the country, Vanderbilt Football has built a résumé strong enough to place them in the at-large College Football Playoff conversation. In most years, that kind of season — coupled with a Heisman Trophy Candidate at the helm — would make the Commodores difficult to ignore.

But because of the way this year’s field is shaking out, a crowd of two-loss teams is competing for just a handful of at-large berths. Vanderbilt sits at No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings, and it must rise to at least No. 10 to get in. Despite the Commodores finally leaping Utah in the rankings this week, they were simultaneously passed by Texas — a three-loss team with a head-to-head advantage over Vanderbilt — after the Longhorns impressive win against Texas A&M.

Head coach Clark Lea's squad, therefore, would need to jump at least three teams to sneak into the Playoff. With no games remaining, they’ve run out of opportunities to do so on the field. Vanderbilt even explored a last-ditch effort to schedule a 13th regular season game, but no matchup came to fruition. Without another datapoint, the Commodores have little room to argue for that kind of late-season leap.

Still, Saturday’s Big 12 Championship and SEC Championship appeared to offer fans a glimpse of hope. Both BYU and Alabama — two teams ahead of Vanderbilt in the rankings at No. 11 and No. 9, respectively — took the field in the Big 12 and SEC Championship Games. Historically, the committee has been reluctant to punish teams for losing on championship weekend (see SMU last season), but the results still matter, especially when the margin is so tight.

“We’ll evaluate the results of [the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC championship] games, as well as the ACC championship game,” Committee Chair Hunter Yurachek said Saturday. “[We’ll] re-rank those teams one last time and the five highest ranked conference champions and the seven highest ranked at-large teams will make the pool.”

Perhaps a bit ironically, Vanderbilt finally got some favorable scoreboard help on Saturday. BYU fell flat in a 31-7 to Texas Tech, while Alabama lost 28-7 to Georgia. BYU’s loss will almost surely eliminate the Cougars from the Playoff field, while Alabama is likely to remain in — unless the committee elects to give Miami the nod.

Still, none of that meaningfully shifts the calculus for Vanderbilt. The Commodores were effectively eliminated as soon as “No. 14” flashed across Tuesday’s ESPNs broadcast of the rankings. Even if Vanderbilt leaps BYU in the rankings, it would rise no higher than No.13 in the rankings — still well outside the cut line.

In a different year, the Commodores’ résumé might have been enough, but this field is simply too crowded, and their fate seems sealed — even with some favorable scores on Saturday.