KenPom Predicts No. 10 Virginia Basketball vs Miami Final Score

What does KenPom think about Virginia's chances of knocking off Miami and advancing to the ACC Tournament Championship?

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Malik Thomas (1) handles the ball against the NC State Wolfpack during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers are one win away from an appearance in the 2026 ACC Tournament Championship. In their way is the No. 3 seeded Miami Hurricanes, who the Cavaliers have already beaten once this season.

The Cavaliers seek their 11th ACC Tournament final appearance. UVA is averaging 80.9 points, most since 85 ppg in 2000-01. UVA has scored 80 or more points in 19 games (most since 21 in 2000-01). UVA ranks 13th in the NET rankings and 19th in the KenPom. com rankings.

Speaking of KenPom, who is the projected winner of tonight's matchup?

The Cavaliers are being given a 59% chance to win this game and the final score is projected as a 75-72 win for UVA.

Big Matchup

Malik Thomas scored 16 points and Ugonna Onyenso blocked eight shots to lead No. 2 seed Virginia to an 81-74 win over NC State in ACC quarterfinal action on March 12. Thijs De Ridder added 15 points, Jacari White chipped in 13 and Sam Lewis added 12. Onyenso added eight points and a team-high six rebounds. UVA drilled 12 3-pointers and owned a 15-0 advantage in fast break points. Paul McNeil, Jr. led the Wolfpack (20-13) with 26 points.

Virginia is 18-13 all-time vs. Miami in the series that dates to 1965-66. UVA has a three-game win streak in the series and has won nine of the last 10 meetings. The Cavaliers are 2-1 against the Hurricanes in the ACC Tournament, including a 1-0 mark in the semifinals. No. 2 seed Virginia defeated No. 3 Miami 73-68 in the 2016 ACC Tournament semifinals.

Miami topped Virginia 69-62 in overtime in the first round of the 2011 ACC Tournament and UVA beat the Hurricanes 66-65 in the first round of the 2005 ACC Tournament. Sixteen of the last 19 meetings between the teams have been decided by 11 points or less.

Jacari White scored 17 points to lead then-No. 14 Virginia to an 86-83 win over Miami at John Paul Jones Arena on Feb. 21. Sam Lewis (15), Thijs De Ridder (14), Chance Mallory (12), Johann Grünloh (12) and Malik Thomas (10) also reached double figures as the Cavaliers shot 58% in their eighth-straight win. Mallory’s three free throws with 3.6 seconds remaining in the game gave UVA the 86-83 victory. Tre Donaldson and Shelton Henderson each scored 18 points for the Hurricanes