KenPom Predicts Virginia Basketball vs Tennessee Final Score

Will Virginia defeat Tennessee today and advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament>

Mar 20, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Jacari White (6) reacts after the game against the Wright State Raiders during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

One of the best matchups of the second round is going to go down this evening between Virginia and Tennessee. The Cavaliers opened as a favorite in the game but the odds shifted towards the Volunteers, but this is expected to be a really close defensive battle between two of the best rebounding teams in the country.

Not only does Vegas expect this to be a close game, but KenPom is projecting a close game is well, but they do not have the Cavaliers coming out victorious. KenPom is projecting that Tennessee is going to win the game 70-69 and KenPom is giving Virginia a 49% chance to win the game. In the KenPom rankings, Tennessee is ranked No. 15 and Virginia is No. 16.

In other words, expect a close game tonight between the two teams.

Rebounding will be key

Virginia and Tennessee are two of the top rebounding teams in the country and you can bet that it is going to be a key in this game.

Virginia ranks first in the ACC in blocks (6.4 bpg) and offensive rebounding (13.1), second in rebounding (40.1), field goal percentage defense (39.6%), third in scoring defense (68.5 ppg), scoring margin (+12.1) and rebounding margin +7.7), fourth in 3-point field goal percentage (36.3%), assists (16.4 apg), 3-pointers (10.2), defensive rebounds (27.1 rpg), and 3-point field goal percentage defense (.313) and fifth in assist/turnover ratio (1.51).

Thijs De Ridder ranks 16th in scoring (15.4 ppg), ninth in field goal percentage (50.5%) and 17th in rebounding (6.2 rpg). Dallin Hall ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (3.2) and 11th in assists (4.3 apg). Ugonna Onyenso leads the ACC in blocks at 2.9 bpg, while Johann Grünloh ranks third in blocks at 2.2 bpg. Chance Mallory ranks second in assist/turnover ratio (3.1), eighth in steals (1.6 spg), 14th in assists (3.5 apg) and 15th in free throw percentage (78.6%). Jacari White ranks 13th in 3-pointers made per game (2.1).

Newcomers Johann Grünloh and Ugonna Onyenso provide elite rim protection for UVA. UVA ranks first nationally in blocks (6.4 bpg), highlighted by Onyenso’s nine-block effort vs. Duke (3/14/26) and eight-block efforts vs. Butler (11/23/25) and NC State (3/12/26) and Grünloh’s eight-block effort vs. NC State (2/24/26).

Onyenso ranks second nationally with 2.9 blocks per game, while Grünloh is 15th at 2.2 bpg. Onyenso’s 21 blocks (8 vs. NC State, 4 vs. Miami and 9 vs. Duke) shattered the record for most blocks in a single ACC Tournament (14, Tim Duncan, Wake Forest, 1995). Onyenso’s nine blocks vs. Duke were the second-most in an ACC Tournament contest.

Onyenso’s eight blocks vs. NC State tied for the third-most in ACC Tournament single-game history. Grünloh’s eight blocks vs. NC State (2/24/26) were most by a Cavalier freshman since Jason Clark’s eight vs. VMI in 2002. Onyenso’s nine-block performance is tied for fourth on UVA’s single-game blocks list. Onyenso has multiple blocks in 24 games, while Grünloh has multiple blocks in 20 games.

Onyenso has four or more blocks in 12 contests, while Grünloh has four or more blocks in seven contests. Onyenso’s 103 blocks are tied for second on UVA’s singles eason blocks list, while Grünloh’s 78 rank seventh.

Tipoff is set for 6:10 p.m. ET tonight.