Preview and Final Score Prediction For No. 11 Virginia vs No. 1 Duke

The biggest game of the year for Virginia has arrived.

The Cavaliers have exceeded expectations so far under first-year head coach Ryan Odom, but they are going to face a massive test on the road today at Cameron Indoor Stadium against No. 1 Duke. The Blue Devils are playing as well as any team in the country, coming off a big win over No. 3 Michigan last weekend, and have the Wooden Award front-runner in Cameron Boozer, who is projected to be a top three pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.

VA is 11-2 away from home this season, including an 8-1 mark in true road contests. UVA has scored 80 or more points in 18 games (most since 21 in 2000-01). UVA is averaging 82.3 points, most since 85 ppg in 2000-01. UVA ranks 13th in the NET rankings and 14th in the kenpom.com rankings.

There is a lot on the line in this game. With a win, UVA would take the lead for the regular-season ACC title with two games left, continue making its case to be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, and announce itself as a possible Final Four threat. It is the game of the year in the ACC, and Virginia is coming into the game with a lot to prove.

So how can Virginia pull off this win?

The Matchup

Feb 24, 2026; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) works against Notre Dame Fighting Irish forward Carson Towt (33) during the first half at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

UVA meets Duke for the 181st meeting overall and 73rd time in Durham in a series that dates to 1910-11. Virginia is 0-16 against Duke when the Blue Devils have been ranked No. 1. UVA meets a top-ranked Duke team for the first time since the Blue Devils edged the Cavaliers 72-70 at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Jan. 19, 2019. The Cavaliers are 54-126 all-time vs. the Blue Devils, including a 12-60 mark in Durham. UVA is 1-4 in its last five games vs. Duke and 3-7 in its last 10. Seven of the last 11 meetings have been decided by four points or less

Virginia ranks first in the ACC in blocks (6.2 bpg), rebounding (41.3), offensive rebounding (13.7) and 3-point field goal percentage defense (.300), second in field goal percentage defense (.393), scoring margin (+14.6) and rebounding margin (+8.7), third in scoring defense (67.8 ppg), 3-pointers (10.3) and defensive rebounds (27.5 rpg), fourth in 3-point field goal percentage (.363) and assists (17.0 apg) and fifth in assist/turnover ratio (1.56). Thijs De Ridder ranks 14th in scoring (16.0 ppg), eighth in field goal percentage (52.4%) and 18th in rebounds (6.3 rpg).

Dallin Hall ranks first in assist/turnover ratio (3.2) and 12th in assists (4.2 apg). Ugonna Onyenso leads the ACC in blocks at 2.6 bpg, while Johann Grünloh ranks third in blocks at 2.4 bpg. Chance Mallory ranks second in assist/turnover ratio (3.0), fifth in steals (1.7 spg), 14th in assists (3.7 apg), and 16th in free throw percentage (78.2%). Mallory is currently the only freshman in NCAA Division I with 250 points, 100 rebounds, 90 assists, 45 steals, and 30 three pointers. Jacari White ranks 12th in 3-pointers made per game (2.3).

How can Virginia slow down Cameron Boozer? That is going to be one of the keys to the game. There is a reason that Boozer is considered the favorite for national player of the year and he does everything well. His passing, his rebounding, and his ability to score at every level make him so tough to match up with. What does Ryan Odom do to limit his effect on the game?

Make no mistake, I think UVA can win this game, more than they are being given credit for. However, Cameron Indoor is a very tough place to play, Duke has as much talent as any team in the country, and Virginia has not seen an opponent like this or played in an environment like this all year. A close game from start to finish, but the Blue Devils win the game and earn the ACC's regular season crown.

Final Score: Duke 77, Virginia 72