A look at Virginia's Remaining Win Probabilities For Each Game In 2025

How does No. 15 Virginia look against its upcoming opponents after defeating North Carolina?

Oct 25, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) is sacked by North Carolina Tar Heels defensive lineman CJ Mims (92) in the first quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Virginia's new home at No. 15 in the AP Top 25 comes just after their tight 17-16 victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels. It was not a seamless week nine battle, however. The matchup led to an overtime thriller, and the Cavaliers' game was saved by a touchdown made by J'Mari Taylor. This was a too-close-for-comfort contest, but it was just enough to allow UVA to extend its record to 7-1.

During his postgame conference, head coach Tony Elliott stated, "So what we learned in those situations is that it's much easier to lose a game than it is to win a game, if that makes sense. Then we were making some costly critical mistakes that cost us games, where I think now we're capitalizing on if an opponent makes a mistake or we're making the plays because of the belief of the young men in that locker room. So, a lot of it is going through being on the other side and they say when you're building a program, you have to first learn how to lose, how to lose close, and then win close and I think because of the experience that we had in the past, it's helped us, you know, get where we are right now."

The Cavaliers have dropped plenty of games in previous years, but this season has been a complete turnaround for Elliott's program. As they enter the second half of their campaign, let's take a look at how ESPN's FPI predictions line up:

Game 9 vs California - FPI gives Virginia a 67.5% chance to win this game

Oct 24, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; California Golden Bears wide receiver Jacob de Jesus (21) dives for the pylon as Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Isaiah Brown-Murray (9) defends during the second quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Virginia's week ten matchup will be against the California Golden Bears, who are currently 5-3 overall. The Golden Bears faced Virginia Tech during their latest contest, but the Hokies defeated them 42-34. California could give UVA a run for its money on Nov. 1, but the odds are not in its favor.

Game 10 vs Wake Forest - FPI gives Virginia a 72.7% chance to win this game

Similar to Virginia, Wake Forest recently endured an uncomfortably close matchup, resulting in a tight 13-12 victory over SMU. The Demon Deacons are running 5-2 overall and 2-2 in conference play.

Game 11 vs Duke - FPI gives Virginia a 39.4% chance to win this game

Oct 18, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils running back Anderson Castle (4) runs with the ball during the first half of the game against Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

This is expected to be the Cavaliers' toughest matchup in their remaining schedule. With a 38.4% chance of winning, hopes are not held high for UVA, but the nation has seen them upset several schools during their 2025 campaign — this game could be no different. They recently fell to No. 8 Georgia Tech by a brutal score of 27-18, which leaves some hope for Virginia's rising program.

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech - FPI gives Virginia a 77.2% chance to win this game

Virginia Tech doesn't have the most striking record right now as they're 3-5 overall and 2-2 in conference play. However, the Hokies were able to take down UVA's next opponent, California, last week, finishing with a score of 42-34. Virginia Tech may not have the best chances of winning against the Cavaliers, but nothing is promised in college football, as this season has proved.

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