Predicting Where the Virginia Cavaliers Will Fall in This Week’s AP Top 25

The 2025 college football season has been chock-full of upsets that have shocked the nation, and the week eleven matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons was no different. UVA entered the matchup as a 6.5-point favorite, and numerous projections had Virginia winning, but the Demon Deacons denied the Cavaliers the satisfaction of securing their eighth consecutive victory by clinching the win with a score of 16-9.

Heading into the weekend, UVA was ranked No. 12 on the AP Top 25. Each passing week, they've managed to climb higher in the rankings, but now, having added an unfortunate loss to their name, they are likely to drop in the poll.

How Much Did Losing To Wake Forest Impact Their Placement?

A football player in a navy blue jersey looking to catch a brown football in the air thrown by a teammat — Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Daniel Kaelin (10) passes the ball to Virginia Cavaliers tight end Sage Ennis (0) against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Simply put, Virginia was not expected to lose this matchup, considering how well they've been performing throughout this season.

There's a strong chance that this loss will drop them back to the Nos. 18-19 range in this week's AP Top 25. During week seven, the Cavaliers found themselves at No. 19, and it might be time for them to revisit that ranking. However, with the College Football Playoff (CFP) Rankings now in full swing, more heads are turned toward that.

UVA Copes With Defeat

A man in a green hoodie and a green hat standing in front of a football player wearing a white helme — Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott watches players prior to their game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

This was undeniably a tough loss for Tony Elliott's program. Having experienced such a phenomenal winning streak with hopes of extending it, his players are feeling rather defeated, understandably so. As Elliott explained during his postgame press conference:

“I mean, they're hurt, so they want to win, right? And they believe that they were going to win all the way down to the last, you know, 13 seconds on the clock. I asked them, I said, did anybody not believe we all were like, we believe, okay, so, but they're hurt, they're disappointed. They're a group that will respond. The biggest challenge is staying inside out, because, you know, I know we're talking about a loss right now, but where we're at is because we stayed inside out, we stayed together, and we've responded. And that's really what to me, the heart of a champion is, you know, when you have defeat, you can, you can respond quickly. And biggest challenge for me and the staff is to make sure that we don't allow this to beat us twice, right? Because, you know, we start to now fracture and listen to outside voices and do all that kind of stuff. And, you know, we played with fire, right? And we got burned. We kept it close when we didn't necessarily have to, right? And we turned the ball over in some critical situations."

"And no, and I'm not discrediting Wake. They played their butts off. They won a game. They're well coached, and they deserve it. At the same time, when we're going to look at this film and we're going to realize, man, we had a lot of opportunities that we didn't capitalize on, we didn't take advantage of, and eventually, in the month of November, right? That's what's going to happen. We're kind of in a little bit of a new frontier. I've been talking a lot about the importance of games in the month of November and how close they are, and how the margin for error is very, very small. So obviously I got to do a better job of making sure that they truly understand that, so that they're prepared to go out and perform, so they don't, you know, put themselves in jeopardy anymore.”

Next up for Virginia will be a week 12 matchup against Duke on Nov. 15 at 3:30 p.m. Similarly to UVA, the Blue Devils are also coming off a loss this week, as they just dropped their game against Connecticut 37-24. Time will tell how the upcoming week will play out, but hopes are held high for Virginia's potential comeback.

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