Predicting Where Virginia Will Be Ranked In The Week 8 AP Top 25

Virginia was off this weekend, but could they still find a way to move up in the AP Poll?

Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) runs the ball in for a touchdown during the overtime against the Louisville Cardinals at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Virginia defeated Louisville 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Virginia was off this weekend and the Cavaliers are going to be back in action next Saturday against Washington State. While UVA was off this weekend, there is a chance that they could continue their move up in AP Top 25 rankings.

Could Virginia move up?

Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) looks to pass against the Louisville Cardinals during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Virginia defeated Louisville 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

I think that Virginia is either going to stay exactly where it is or move up a couple of spots, with the latter being much more likely.

In front of them, No. 17 Illinois lost their second game of the season yesterday, dropping a 34-16 contest to No. 1 Ohio State and they are likely to drop out of the poll altogether. No. 15 Michigan lost 31-13 to USC and I think they could fall out of the poll as well, or at least drop below No. 19 and give UVA another chance to move up.

Another top 20 team that dropped a game was No. 14 Missouri, losing at home to Alabama 27-24. I think Missouri is still going to be ranked of course, but will they drop below Virginia and out of the top 20? I kind of doubt it because of the respect that voters are going to give Alabama, but it is possible.

If I had to guess, I think that Virginia is going to move up to No. 17 with Illinois and Michigan falling behind them. Let's see what happens this afternoon.

Biggest playoff enigma in the ACC?

Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott reacts during the second half against the Louisville Cardinals at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Virginia defeated Louisville 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

There is still a long way to go, but the chatter around Virginia being a legitimate threat for the College Football Playoff is starting to gain some steam. In a recent article, ESPN's Heather Dinich labeled the Cavaliers as the biggest playoff enigma in the ACC:

"First the Cavaliers caught the nation's attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they've got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That's because ESPN's FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it's unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn't have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don't win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks."

Schedule gives them plenty of opportunity

Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) throws a pass against the Louisville Cardinals during the second quarter at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Even if you were not a believer in Virginia before the season, their schedule was still looked at as arguably the easiest in the country for a power four team. There was plenty of opportunity for UVA, but were they going to be able to take advantage of it? Even then, the conversation focused on them finally getting to a bowl game for the first time under Tony Elliott, not if they could make a run at the ACC Championship.

A reason for a UVA fan to be optimistic is that they have already won their two hardest projected conference games. This team might be an underdog only once more during the regular season (at Duke) and even then, that game is going to be winnable for Virginia.

As Dinich pointed out, the big question for Virginia's playoff hopes is if they go 11-2 (losing to Miami in the ACC Championship), will they get an at large bid or will the loss to NC State keep them out? There is still a lot of season left to be played, but that is a very real scenario and one that the selection committe might have to sort out in the end.

For now, Virginia is going to keep their focus on their next opponent, which is Washington State next Saturday.