Virginia Football Debuts at No. 11 In ESPN's Preseason ACC Power Rankings

College football is getting closer and preseason power rankings are slowly starting to trickle out after the preseason media polls. In the ACC, Virginia was picked to finish 14th in the conference by those in attendance at ACC media days, and that was not too far off from where ESPN's power rankings had them. The rankings, which were released today, had the Cavaliers ranked 11th heading into this season, which was above Syracuse, North Carolina, Boston College, Calfornia, Wake Forest, and Stanford:

"Tony Elliott's rebuild at Virginia has been slow. The program has endured tragedy, dealt with limited funds, and struggled to find roster consistency. But Elliott's blueprint is finally coming into focus, and a manageable schedule certainly makes it seem as if this could be the year UVA takes a big step forward."

UVA is a bit of a tough team to place in these polls or rankings. On one hand, they have not had much success so far under head coach Tony Elliott and have not even made a bowl game heading into his fourth season. On the other hand, they looked like a much improved team at times last season and brought in one of the ACC's best transfer classes, not to mention having the ACC's easiest schedule. Combine those two things and you have a team that has a chance to rank higher than 11th if things go right.

The schedule is going to give Virginia plenty of opportunity to make a bowl game and perhaps even more.

In a ranking of ACC schedules, CBS Sports Chip Patterson ranked UVA's as the easiest in the conference, while Syracuse has the toughest:

"A busy offseason aligns with one of the more favorable schedules to set up what could be coach Tony Elliot's long-awaited breakthrough with the program. Virginia brings in 31 players from the portal (it only took 22 total over the previous two offseasons) and faces a schedule that lacks Clemson, Miami, and SMU. The toughest nonconference game is actually against an ACC peer in NC State, so if Virginia can hold serve as a favorite, it might need only one or two upsets to be bowl-eligible for the first time since 2021."

ESPN's FPI ranked UVA's schedule as the easiest in the power four.

Trell Harris Virgini — Aug 31, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) celebrates with Cavaliers running back Kobe Pace (5) after scoring a touchdown against the Richmond Spiders during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

FPI has Virginia with the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country. Wake Forest, Houston, BYU, and Arizona make up the rest of the weakest power four schedules in the country.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

FPI was released this week and it has Virginia ranked as the 63rd best team in the country and finishing with a record of 7-5. FPI gives UVA a 71.4% chance to make a bowl game, a 0.8% chance to win the ACC, and a 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:

1. Miami (No. 9 overall)

2. Clemson (No. 11)

3. SMU (No. 20)

4. Virginia Tech (No.26)

5. Georgia Tech (No. 28)

6. Louisville (No. 41)

7. Florida State (No. 48)

8. Boston College (No. 50)

9. North Carolina (No. 51)

10. Duke (No. 54)

11. NC State (No. 57)

12. Pittsburgh (No. 58)

13. California (No. 60)

14. Syracuse (No. 62)

15. Virginia (No. 63)

16. Stanford (No. 64)

17. Wake Forest (No. 89)

Here is how Virginia's 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:

Aug. 30th- Coastal Carolina (100th)

Sept. 6th- at NC State (No. 57)

Sept. 13th- William & Mary (NA)

Sept. 20th- Stanford (64th)

Sept. 26th- Florida State (48th)

Oct. 4th- at Louisville (41st)

Oct. 18th- Washington State (98th)

Oct. 25th- at North Carolina (51st)

Nov. 1st- at Cal (60th)

Nov. 8th- Wake Forest (89th)

Nov. 15th- at Duke (54th)

Nov. 28th- Virginia Tech (26th)

As you can see, this is a very favorable schedule for the Cavaliers. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season and don't face a projected top 25 opponent according to FPI. I also don't think Virginia Tech is the 26th best team in the country and 4th best in the ACC. I don't expect this team to be in the ACC Championship, but anything less than a bowl appearance is going to be mighty disappointing.

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