What Does The Advanced Analytics Say About Virginia's Remaining Schedule After Brutal Loss to Wake Forest

Where do the Virginia Cavaliers stand after their recent loss to Wake Forest?

Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers safety Caleb Hardy (26) looks on from the field prior to the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers have now dropped eight spots in the AP Top 25 after losing to Wake Forest by a score of 16-9 during week eleven. This outcome was considered a shock — all signs pointed toward Virginia clinching the victory, but they were no match for the Demon Deacons.

"... we're going to look at this film and we're going to realize, man, we had a lot of opportunities that we didn't capitalize on, we didn't take advantage of, and eventually, in the month of November, right? That's what's going to happen," Tony Elliott stated during his postgame press conference. "We're kind of in a little bit of a new frontier. I've been talking a lot about the importance of games in the month of November and how close they are, and how the margin for error is very, very small. So obviously I got to do a better job of making sure that they truly understand that, so that they're prepared to go out and perform, so they don't, you know, put themselves in jeopardy anymore.” 

Game 11 vs Duke - FPI gives Virginia a 39.3% chance to win this game

Nov 8, 2025; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) throws a pass against the UConn Huskies in the second half at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Similar to the Cavaliers, the Blue Devils are currently experiencing a dreadful loss in week eleven. By a tight score of 37-34, Connecticut secured the win over Duke. Both programs hit the ground running during the first quarter, but the Huskies' momentum was much higher than that of the Blue Devils. Having added another loss to their name, Duke now owns an overall record of 5-4 and 4-1 in conference play.

According the FanDuel Sportsbook, the Blue Devils are currently a 6.5-point favorite over UVA, with the over/under set at 58.5. Of course, there is still plenty of time for these odds to change, but the probability of much movement is incredibly slim.

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech - FPI gives Virginia a 76.9% chance to win this game

Nov 1, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Keyjuan Brown (22) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the fourth quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech will be the Cavaliers' final regular-season matchup, and fortunately, this game is looking promising for UVA. The Hokies are running 3-6 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. This is anything but a strong season for Virginia Tech, which will likely play out in the Cavaliers' favor. Before the Hokies play UVA, they will be facing Florida State during week twelve. The outcome of this matchup will be telling — does Virginia Tech have what it takes to take down a ranked opponent?

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