Is Virginia Going to Miss the ACC Tournament Entirely?

Matt Newton | Jan 26, 2025

Aaron Snyder

One of the less talked about, at least immediately, ramifications of the ACC's expansion to add Cal, Stanford, and SMU to the conference last summer was that, while the league adjusted its regular season conference scheduling model to adjust for having 18 teams, no changes were made to the format of the ACC Basketball Tournament. Previously, all 15 teams were guaranteed a spot in the conference tourney no matter their record in the regular season.

No longer.

Starting this season, three unfortunate teams will end up below the cut line at the end of the year. The 16th, 17th, and 18th-place teams will earn the lamentable honor of becoming the first three teams to ever miss the 15-team ACC Tournament.

In the first year of this new reality, the Virginia Cavaliers, kings of the ACC standings for many of the 15 years under Tony Bennett, could find themselves as one of those three eliminated teams. Following Saturday's 74-59 loss to Notre Dame in Charlottesville, which could be the team's worst loss of the season considering opponent, location, and margin of defeat, Virginia now has sole possession of 16th place in the current ACC standings with a 2-7 conference record. Only Boston College and Miami, who is UVA's next opponent, have worse records in ACC play.

Current ACC Men's Basketball Standings

1. Duke (17-2, 9-0 ACC)
2. Clemson (17-4, 9-1 ACC)
3. Louisville (15-5, 8-1 ACC)
4. Wake forest (15-5, 7-2 ACC)
5. SMU (15-5, 6-3 ACC)
6. Stanford (14-6, 6-3 ACC)
7. North Carolina (13-8, 6-3 ACC)
8. Pittsburgh (13-6, 4-4 ACC)
9. Florida State (13-7, 4-5 ACC)
10. California (11-9, 4-5 ACC)
11. Notre Dame (9-10, 3-5 ACC)
12. Syracuse (9-11, 3-6 ACC)
13. Georgia Tech (9-11, 3-6 ACC)
14. Virginia Tech (8-12, 3-6 ACC)
15. NC State (9-10, 2-6 ACC)
16. Virginia (9-11, 2-7 ACC)
17. Boston College (9-11, 1-8 ACC)
18. Miami (4-16, 0-9 ACC)

As a general rule, comparing this year's UVA basketball team to any of the Cavalier squads in Tony Bennett's tenure is a pointless and unfair exercise given the circumstances of the season. But in 15 years under Bennett, Virginia had the following finishes in ACC play: 9th, 7th, 4th, 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 6th, 1st, and 3rd. UVA only had double-digit conference losses in Bennett's first season and had seven or fewer ACC losses in 12 of those 15 years.

Before Bennett retired, this Virginia team was picked to finish fifth in the ACC. We won't explore the myriad reasons for why the Cavaliers will undoubtedly fall well short of that projection - suffice it to say it doesn't all fall on Ron Sanchez - but it's a foregone conclusion that Virginia will finish nowhere near the top five and may very well miss the ACC Tournament altogether.

ESPN's matchup predictor has Virginia favored to win in just two games the rest of the season: both home games against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. In UVA's next game, which is on the road against a winless and head coach-less Miami team, ESPN is currently only giving UVA a 38.3% chance to win. Even if we give the Hoos a win in that one, that means Virginia would finish 12-19 overall and 5-15 in ACC play. Would that be good enough for the Cavaliers to finish 15th place or better in the final standings?

If we optimistically give the Cavaliers a few more wins and say they'll finish somewhere between 8-12 and 5-15 in ACC play, there are likely only going to be five or six teams in that range with them. Virginia can, at the very least, assert itself above Boston College and could do the same with Miami with a win in Coral Gables on Wednesday. But UVA will still need to overtake one more team in the standings in order to qualify for the ACC Tournament.

Winning against NC State in the only meeting between the two teams should help in a tiebreaking scenario, but the Wolfpack have also beaten Florida State and Notre Dame this season, so maybe they're capable of winning a few more than they should on paper to beat out the Cavaliers in the standings outright. It also might come down to Syracuse, Georgia Tech, or Virginia Tech. Those two games against the Hokies in the Commonwealth Clash will loom large. UVA and Virginia Tech have split the regular season series in each of the last three seasons and the Cavaliers haven't won at Cassell Coliseum since 2020.

It's almost embarrassing for Virginia to be in this conversation and shows just how far the program has fallen. Many followers of UVA basketball consider this a lost season and are looking ahead to the inevitable significant changes that will be made in March and April, but it's still a very important objective for Virginia to avoid being in that trio of teams who will miss the ACC Tournament at the end of the season.

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