Is Virginia's basketball KenPom ranking unfair, or a sign of things to come?

The Cavaliers defense was praised, but its offense may be underrated

Virginia men's basketball celebrates a shot against Richmond. | Courtesy Virginia Athletics

Great things are expected of this 2026-27 Virginia men's basketball team.

Many analysts, such as CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein, have predicted the Cavaliers to be a top-10 team. Virginia's rare continuity is a big reason why — it returns a lethal core of Thijs De Ridder, Chance Mallory, Sam Lewis and Johann Grunloh.

However, despite the talent retention and a few intriguing additions, there is a small crowd that leans more towards a pessimistic side. In the first KenPom rankings of the season, the Cavaliers were ranked No. 15 — certainly on the lower side compared to the general assessment of this team.

Virginia's defense was ranked No. 9 nationally, while its offense was surprsingly spotted all the way down at No. 24 nationally.

Who was ranked ahead of Virginia?

There are a few teams which are unsurprisingly placed ahead of the Cavaliers. That list includes Duke, Florida, UConn, Illinois, Houston, Arizona and Michigan State. There is also a legitimate case for Vanderbilt, which beat Virginia in an exhibition game.

There are also a few surprises on the respected KenPom rankings — particularly that Iowa State came in at No. 6 overall. Others ahead of the Cavaliers include Kansas, Texas, Alabama, Texas Tech and Gonzaga.

Offensive rating may be a significant underestimate

Virginia averaged 80.4 points per game last year, and De Ridder earned First Team All-ACC honors. It is also worth noting that it was the first season of high-major basketball for De Ridder, Mallory, Grunloh and Lewis. De Ridder ended up earning First Tea, All-ACC honors.

Each of those players should be even better this year, and more importantly, the chemistry with the rest of the core will be strong.

In terms of starters, a sophomore Mallory is on track to be a significant upgrade over Malik Thomas in terms of efficiency. Mallory actually averaged more minutes per game, with nearly double the assists (3.4 APG to 1.5) and also a better shooting percentage (42.2 to 41.2 FG%).

Grunloh should also be a big upgrade over his former self. Coach Ryan Odom said that the German center has added some notable muscle this offseason, and is becoming more comfortable in the offense.

There is also a wildcard — Grunloh's fellow countryman, Nolan Adekunle. The fifth starter could make a big impact as a reliable corner shooter, plus a strong defender and rebounder.

The difficult schedule may affect statistics

Analytics like KenPom are heavily driven by statistics. Given that Virginia has an extremely ardous schedule, it may not score as many points per game compared to a team that has a lightweight schedule.

The Cavaliers will have played eight of the top 26 teams on the opening KenPom rankings this season. Many of those contests could be gritty, defensive battles in which scoring 85 points is wishful thinking.

Regardless, it is surprising to see Gonzaga spotted ahead of a Virginia squad that has the potential to be one of the best teams in the country and proven against elite competition.