TILOCK: Virginia Is Becoming Defined by Its Losses, Not Wins

When you have goals, you won't always reach them. When you have standards, you will always remain accountable to them and never wither. If someone fails to meet the standard, they are out

Oct 17, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott argues a call during the first half against the SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Such is life in college football. And sometimes, you lose in historic fashion. Virginia experienced the lattermost category Saturday.

On Halloween, the Cavaliers were treated to nothing but an ugly 51-7 loss against No. 14 Wake Forest. The game was never close. So — where does a 4-5 Cavaliers team go from here?

In short, a murky road has now become even more unclear and frightening. Virginia must win two of its final three games to even make a bowl game. Two of those games are against North Carolina (nearly upset No. 1 Miami) and Virginia Tech (road rivalry against a 6-2 team). At this point, the 2026 season looks lost. But while this year's team has disappointed, what about the state of the program overall?

To their credit, Coach Tony Elliott's Cavaliers have a few signature wins (2023 vs North Carolina, 2024 vs Pitt, 2025 vs Florida State, Missouri and Louisville). However, the embarassing losses are starting to outweigh the rare highlights.

In the Elliott era, Virginia is 26-31. Some of those 31 losses have been particularly costly.

Losing big games

Had the Cavaliers played an easier schedule, perhaps 2024 could have been the breakout campaign. Virginia got off to a 4-1 start that year. More likely than not, that team was going to a bowl game. Wrong. The Cavaliers defied the odds and went 1-6 in their final seven games, missing out on a bowl game.

Entering the final game of the 2024 season, Virginia was one win away from bowl eligibility. All it needed to do was conquer its rival in Blacksburg, Va.

The Cavaliers proceeded to lose 37-17.

Nov 30, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Tony Muskett (7) throws for a two point conversion during the third quarter against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

In 2025, Virginia fared much better. The Cavaliers went 10-2, earning a rematch with Duke in the ACC title game. Just two weeks earlier, Virginia trounced the Blue Devils on the road. The Cavaliers were big favorites to win the conference championship and reach the College Football Playoff.

In the biggest game of the Elliott era, Virginia never held a lead. The Cavaliers fought hard — but crumbled in overtime.

Yes, Virginia has won some big games. But the biggest games have been losses. And those losses have come to define the program, particularly in the midst of a lost 2026 campaign.

The state of the program

To be clear, it was not expected for the Cavaliers to pick up ranked wins at SMU and Wake Forest this year. However, it is looking more and more likely that Virginia fails to earn a ranked win in a season for the first time since 2022. That fact makes it feel like the program isn't just stagnating, it is taking several steps backwards from a few years of positive momentum.

Against the Mustangs, this team had a real chance to win. The Cavaliers fought hard, and only lost by 10. It is hard to not play the "what if?" game with regards to a missed field goal and redzone fumble. This past defeat against the Demon Deacons, however, was the worst annihilation suffered by this program since 2013.

Virginia wasn't even remotely competitive for about 80% of this football game. That is unacceptable for a program with standards.

And therein lies the issue — this program is currently built on goals, not standards.

Oct 31, 2026; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons running back Jamar Searcy (29) runs in for a score against the Virginia Cavaliers during the second half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Ahead of this season (and others), Elliott and Virginia's veteran leadership council laid out goals for the campaign — go undefeated at home, win the ACC and other dreams. At this moment, the Cavaliers are on track to miss the mark on many of those hopes.

When you have goals, you won't always reach them. But when you have standards, you will always remain accountable to them and never wither. If someone fails to meet the standard, they are out.

That is the mindset held by many championship-winning coaches, including the recent MLB champion Milwaukee Brewers, a small-market franchise competing with teams that have three times their payroll. Virginia, like that baseball team, has to compete with financial heavyweights. And more often than not, the Cavaliers lose by several scores.

That same baseball team has a coach who is willing to bench star players for not hustling, or experiment with new strategies or even publicly call out underperforming coaches and players. It is unclear if Elliott is willing to do those things.

Elliott is now 3-8 against AP ranked opponents. There are certainly coaches with worse records than that, but regardless, it calls into question the standard of this program. What is deemed "unacceptable?" The benchmark for success is clear, but what constitutes failure?

If the Cavaliers finish with a 5-7 record, that must be constituted as total failure given the talent and veteran experience on this football team. At this point in the season, the team has already failed one too many times.

The question is, how is Elliott going to uphold (or create) a standard, and who gets held accountable for it?