Virginia a big favorite over Delaware, according to FPI

In its first trip away from Scott Stadium this season, Virginia suffered a loss. But that is in the past. In the mind of Coach Tony Elliott, all focus is on going 1-0 this week. In the way stands Delaware, an up-and-coming program which has some major talent on its roster.

However, despite said talent, the Cavaliers are still massive favorites. DraftKings Sportsbook favors Virginia by 19.5 points. ESPN's Football Power Index aligns with that prediction — FPI gives the Cavaliers an 86.7% chance to win Saturday.

Why does FPI side with Virginia?

On paper, it should not be surprising that the Cavaliers are big favorites against a mid-major team at home in primetime. Even so, it is interesting that Virginia is favored by such a large percentage.

That could be due to the fact that FPI is "a forward-looking model meant to forecast how a team will play for the rest of the season," and does not heavily rely on the result from previous performances.

So — the West Virginia loss is not playing a massive role for the Cavaliers here. FPI is not simply looking at the box score, it is looking at expected points added. Here is how EPA is defined:

What is FPI?

EPA is measure of success/failure that takes into account yards, turnovers, red zone efficiency and more to determine how many points each unit is contributing to the team's scoring margin. For example, if a team wins by an average of 10 points per game, it could be that plus-seven of that is offense, plus-four is defense and minus-one is special teams.

EPA added on offense, defense and special teams are individually adjusted for each game based on the strength of the opposing unit faced and where the game is played. Additionally, FPI applies a capping of sorts to each of these components to minimize effects of blowout games and improve prediction accuracy. As we learn more about the true ability of each team, FPI retroactively readjusts each game within the season using the team's latest predicted components.

Based on clarification, the impact Virginia's victory over Norfolk State is lessened. However, the win over NC State is significantly more impressive — and the loss to the Mountaineers is "more forgivable."

Delaware's EPA are also taken into account. The Blue Hens' win over Merrimack is unimpressive — but beating Coastal Carolina and cutting it oh so close at Vanderbilt should reward them.

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