Spread and Over/Under Predictions for Virginia Tech vs SMU

Two teams that have never played the other in the history of their programs are set to face off for the first time ever at 9:00 p.m. ET on the ACC Network. SMU and Virginia Tech have been unreliable against the spread.

SMU either demolishes their points, or loses by a much larger margin than expected. As 1.5-point favorites at home against Louisville, the Mustangs lost by 25. As 5.5-point favorites against Miami on the road, the Mustangs won by 43 points, covering the spread by 37.5 points. The Hokies have won two consecutive games as underdogs, raising their ATS record to 9-13 on the season.

SMU just completed a two-game conference stretch against Cal and Stanford—an ACC matchup that would have been unthinkable to a college basketball fan in 2022. The Mustangs' win streak stretches one game back as well. The 'Stangs defeated NC State 63-57 on the road before that home stretch. Led by Samet Yigitoglu, SMU has caught fire again in the middle of the season. Yigitoglu led the team in scoring against NC State and Stanford, with 20 and 17 points, respectively.

Matt Cross has also done a great job of cleaning the boards from the forward position. He has eight games of double-digit rebounds on the year. Andy Enfield has a ton of history as a NCAA head coach and the Mustangs are vying for a Tournament bid in Enfield's first year at Southern Methodist.

The Hokies have caught a second wind in the middle of the season. The Hokies have caught two consecutive wins against ACC opponents, Florida State and Virginia. Lawal was the team's leading scorer (17) and rebounder (13) against Florida State, and Jaden Schutt was the Hokies' leading scorer against Virginia. Ben Burnham led the team in rebounds.

Any given player on any given night can lead the Hokies in scoring. Lawal has probably been the most consistent scorer, but other players get some push too. Jaden Schutt, the Duke transfer has okay shooting numbers, and he has worked well as a catch-and-shoot threat. Ben Burnham has been the same for the Hokies, he's a catch-and-shoot threat who could drain a three in a telephone booth. The dynamic freshman Tyler Johnson out-rebounds his height extremely well. He averages 5.2 rebounds to just 6.3 points as a wing. Mylyjael Poteat has been the prototypical dominant and athletic big for Virginia Tech.

There's plenty of other contributors too, Patrick Wessler, Jaydon Young, Rodney Brown Jr., and Brandon Rechsteiner have all been a solid second unit for Mike Young's squad.

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Clemson is a 5.5-point favorite tonight and the over/under is set at 145.5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Predictions

This is honestly an odd spot for both teams. Virginia Tech is coming off two upset wins, and SMU is coming off another three-game win streak--their previous three-game winning streak was broken by their 25-point loss to Louisville. SMU hasn't won four conference games in a row this season, but Virginia Tech has also not won three conference games in a row.

I'd watch for Samet Yigitoglu and Boopie Miller to have big games for SMU. I'd predict SMU to win, but Virginia Tech to catch the spread. The Hokies have been playing their best basketball as of late.

Final Score: SMU 70, Virginia Tech 65 (Virginia Tech covers + under)

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