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What Are Virginia Tech's Keys to Defeat Oregon In Their First Round Matchup?

Breaking down Virginia Tech's path to beating Oregon in the first round of March Madness.
Carys Baker and Carleigh Wenzel pregame
Carys Baker and Carleigh Wenzel pregame | Virginia Tech Athletic

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Virginia Tech enters Friday's NCAA Tournament matchup against Oregon in a tightly contested 8-9 game that could swing on a handful of key factors. The Hokies (23-9) and Ducks (22-12) are closely matched on paper, with similar scoring averages and defensive metrics that set up a compelling first-round battle.

Here are the keys to win for Virginia Tech.

1. Win the turnover battle.

The most important factor for Virginia Tech will be winning the turnover battle. Oregon has been prone to mistakes throughout the season, averaging 15.0 turnovers a game. The Ducks' primary ballhandler, Katie Fiso, averages 3.9 turnovers per contest. In Oregon's double overtime loss to then No. 6 Michigan, Fiso turned the ball over 10 times.

In the Ducks' most recent game, also against Michigan, she turned the ball over five times. If the Hokies can disrupt Fiso's passing lanes and apply consistent on-ball pressure, it can lead to easy transition scoring chances.

Virginia Tech was one of the better ball-handling teams in the ACC this season. It ranked fifth in the conference, averaging 13.5 turnovers a game. The Hokies were also one of the best teams in the ACC in forcing turnovers, where their opponents averaged 18.0 turnovers a game.

On the flipside, Oregon has been effective at forcing turnovers, with opponents averaging 18.4 per game.

This game between Virginia Tech and Oregon could come down to a couple possesions, so whoever can win the turnover battle, will likely be victorious.

2. Carleigh Wenzel and Carys Baker need to shine.

Another key path to victory for Virginia Tech lies in the production of guard Carleigh Wenzel and forward Carys Baker. Wenzel has been one of the Hokies' most reliable offensive initiators, capable of scoring at all three levels, while Baker leads the Hokies in three-point percentage.

Wenzel, in particular, has been playing some of her best basketball of the season. In the Hokies' last game against a quality defensive team in North Carolina, Wenzel scored 26 points.

If Virginia Tech is going to advance, it likely needs both players to have a major scoring impact. If both players can score 20 plus points, it would not only give the Hokies consistent offense but also prevent the scoring droughts that can derail teams in tournament settings.

3. Virginia Tech needs to play four quality quarters of basketball.

Virginia Tech must put together a complete performance across all four quarters. The Hokies have already shown in the ACC Tournament how dangerous inconsistency can be. In their opening round win over Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech fell behind early after scoring just seven points in the first quarter while allowing 17. The slow start forced the Hokies to play from behind, and while they responded with a dominating 22-6 second quarter to take control, that kind of early deficit is far mare difficult to overcome in the NCAA Tournament.

That same inconsistency showed up in the ACC quarterfinal matchup against North Carolina. Virginia Tech started strong, but completely unraveled in the second quarter, shooting just 1-for-11 from the field during that stretch. That one quarter swung the game and ultimately proved too much to overcome in a tight loss.

This kind of inconsistency hasn't been isolated to the ACC Tournament. Earlier in the season, an 82-62 loss to NC State looked like a blowout, but it was largely decided in one stretch, with the Hokies being outscored 25-8 in the second quarter.

Virginia Tech has already shown flashes of what it can be at its best. The question now is whether it can sustain that level for an entire game. Against Oregon, the margin for error will be thin. But if the Hokies can stay disciplined, control the game and deliver across all four quarters, they'll give themselves a real chance to keep their season alive.

Virginia Tech and Oregon are set to tip off on Friday, March 20 at 1:30 p.m. ET, with coverage on ESPN2.

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James Duncan
JAMES DUNCAN

James Duncan is a senior at Virginia Tech studying Sports Media and Analytics. He is an active member of 3304 Sports, covering Virginia Tech sports, as well as a reporter for The Lead covering the Washington Commanders. James is passionate about delivering detailed, accurate coverage and helping readers connect with the games they love.