Cal Scouting Report: What Virginia Tech Should Expect vs. the Golden Bears

Virginia Tech’s coaches have spent part of this week watching old Hawaii and Washington State film. The Hokies play Cal on Saturday.

That’s what happens when an opponent changes offenses in the middle of a game. Cal coach Tosh Lupoi took play-calling away from offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville at halftime of last Saturday’s 39–31 loss at UNLV and gave it to passing game coordinator Pat McCann, a move Lupoi confirmed Tuesday. What the Bears ran in Las Vegas looked more like the pass-heavy spread quarterbacks coach Nick Rolovich used at those two schools than the pro-style system Somerville installed.

So the Cal team (2–3, 1–1 ACC) that Virginia Tech (4–1, 1–1) meets at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday on ACC Network isn’t the one on most of this season’s film. The play-caller is new. The quarterback is in concussion protocol. So is the safety who leads the FBS in interceptions. Lupoi said Tuesday that 10 starters are dealing with injuries.

One thing about Cal hasn’t changed. It can’t stop the run, and that should decide Saturday.

A different offense than the one on film

Before UNLV, Cal averaged 18.3 points and 4.4 yards per play in three games against FBS opponents. It didn’t score an offensive touchdown in a 24–10 home loss to Clemson. Lupoi called the production unacceptable, shuffled his offensive assistants’ duties before the trip, then made the switch with Cal down 24–7 at the half.

“I just changed it up,” Lupoi said Tuesday.

Cal scored 24 points after halftime, its most in any half against an FBS team this season, and finished with 464 yards. It got there by throwing 59 passes and running for just 69 yards.

McCann, a former Fresno State offensive coordinator, will have the call sheet to start Saturday. Somerville, hired off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ staff, is a first-year coordinator. Franklin said Monday he couldn’t tell who called Cal’s plays at UNLV.

Whoever has it, Tech’s defense lines up well against what Cal does worst. The Bears rank 133rd in the FBS in rushing (95.0 yards per game) and 106th on third down (34.7%). Tech allows 87.4 rushing yards per game, 14th nationally, and ranks 17th in third-down defense at 27.9%.

Cal throws for 301.0 yards per game, 18th in the FBS, and scores on 93.8% of its red zone trips. Its problem is getting there.

Two quarterbacks to prepare for

Sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 3,454 yards and 18 touchdowns as a true freshman. This season he has 1,180 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 65.2% of his passes.

“The quarterback is as impressive of a prospect as there is,” Franklin said Monday.

Sagapolutele’s head hit the turf late in the first half at UNLV. He was cleared at halftime and Lupoi held him out anyway. On Tuesday, Lupoi said Sagapolutele is in concussion protocol, is day-to-day and sat out the contact portion of practice.

If he can’t go, Jackson Brousseau starts. The redshirt junior is a 6'4" transfer who started eight games at Colorado State last season. He went 19-of-32 for 200 yards and two touchdowns in relief and led 18 straight points to put Cal ahead 25–24.

The drop-off may be smaller than the names suggest. In three games against power-conference opponents, Sagapolutele is 61-of-104 for 572 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. That’s 5.5 yards per attempt.

Either one will look for wide receiver Ian Strong, a Rutgers transfer with 23 catches for 299 yards, and tight end Taimane Purcell, who scored from 91 yards out at UNLV. Mohammed, the leading rusher with 336 yards and three touchdowns on 73 carries, missed that game with a leg injury.

Cal's best defender is in concussion protocol

Kingston Lopa, a 6'5" redshirt sophomore who transferred from Oregon, leads the FBS with five interceptions. Three came against Syracuse; one of them returned for a touchdown. He left the UNLV game in the opening minutes and still leads Cal with 27 tackles. Lupoi said Tuesday that Lopa is also in concussion protocol.

Cal’s pass defense numbers (173.2 yards allowed per game, 28th in the FBS) were built with him on the field. After he went out, UNLV threw touchdown passes of 70 and 36 yards before halftime.

That matters to a Tech offense that gave the ball away four times against Pitt, including Ethan Grunkemeyer’s first two interceptions of the season. Virginia Tech is minus-5 in turnover margin; Cal is plus-1.

Defensive backs Cam Sidney and Daniel Harris were both ejected for targeting at UNLV, and both can play Saturday. Linebacker AJ Tuitele leads the pass rush with three sacks, two of them at UNLV.

Where Cal is vulnerable

Cal allows 187.4 rushing yards per game, 121st in the FBS. UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold ran for 110 yards and two touchdowns by himself.

Tech fans have seen this one. The Hokies ran for 357 yards, 275 of them after halftime, in last year’s 42–34 double-overtime win in Blacksburg. Both programs have changed head coaches since. Cal’s run defense has the same problem.

And Tech needs the reset. The Hokies ran for 65 yards against Pitt after averaging 177.8 yards through four games. Sophomore Jeffrey Overton Jr. has 455 yards and four touchdowns on 77 carries, 5.9 per attempt.

Cal will help, too. The Bears were flagged 16 times for 152 yards at UNLV, both season highs, and their 87.8 penalty yards per game rank 136th in the FBS.

What to expect

Tech opened as a 10.5-point favorite. Cal was an underdog in all four of its earlier FBS games, never by as many as four points. It’s Cal’s homecoming, Tech’s first game in Berkeley, and the third meeting between programs that split the first two.

Expect Cal to throw early and often, out of empty sets, and to hit a big play or two. The offense that scored 24 points in a half is better than a 2–3 record says.

But Cal’s path to an upset runs through Tech turnovers, and Tech’s path runs straight at a defense giving up 187 rushing yards a game. If the Hokies run it and hold onto it, the name of Cal’s quarterback won’t matter much.

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