FPI Projects Virginia Tech's Game Against Georgia Tech: Can The Hokies Avoid A Three-Game Skid?

BLACKSBURG — Virginia Tech football lost to California 25-20 in Berkeley, Calif., on Oct. 10. Now, it looks to bounce back against Georgia Tech this Saturday in order to avoid falling into a three-game rut.

Ahead of Saturday's clash, ESPN's Football Power Index offers potential insight into which team has the better chance of emerging victorious.

Here's a quick explainer on how the Football Power Index works.

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through [136]; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules."

Virginia Tech holds a 73.7% win probability for Saturday's contest against the Yellow Jackets; the Hokies are listed as 10-point favorites on DraftKings at the time of writing.

How have the Hokies gotten here?

The Hokies (4-2, 1-2 ACC) opened the season with four straight victories for the first time since 2017. Virginia Tech toppled VMI 73-3 to open the campaign, securing its largest margin of victory since the 1922 season against Catholic. Then, it defeated Old Dominion 44-21 nearly a calendar year after its 45-26 loss to the Monarchs on Sept. 13, 2025.

A then-2-0 Virginia Tech unit snapped its 15-game losing streak against non-conference Power Four foes with a 35-26 victory over Maryland; the Hokies then triumphed over Boston College 21-14 in a nor'easter.

Virginia Tech lost for the first time in the 2026 season on Oct. 2 when it fell 35-33 to Pitt in Lane Stadium. Despite racing out to a 14-0 lead, the Hokies enabled Pitt to go on a 35-10 run, and their nine-point rally fell just short. Fifth-year kicker John Love's 36-yard game-deciding field goal was ruled no good, appearing to go over the left upright.

The next week in Berkeley, Calif. Virginia Tech held a slim 14-13 lead entering the final quarter before ceding the lead twice. The Hokies scored with 1:15 to go, but allowed a go-ahead Cal touchdown with 18 seconds to go. Virginia Tech's furious rally came up just short; the Hokies got down to the 7-yard line, but quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer's last-gasp throw to a tightly covered Luke Reynolds couldn't find its mark, handing the Hokies a 25-20 defeat.

Last year, the Hokies lost 35-20 to then-No. 13 Georgia Tech in Atlanta, Ga. Virginia Tech is 12-9 against the Yellow Jackets all-time, which includes an even 5-5 mark at home.

Virginia Tech's contest against Georgia Tech is set to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET, with coverage for the event available on the ACC Network.

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