Surprise CFP Contender? ESPN Lists Virginia Tech Among the Programs Who Can Make It

Oct 26, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) catches a touchdown pass during the first quarter against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech is a... College Football Playoff Contender?

You won't find many that cover the sport of college football that agree with that statement, but according to ESPN, the Hokies are a contender to get to the 12-team playoff and compete for a national championship. ESPN college football analyst Heather Dinich compiled a list of 32 teams that can make the playoff, and near the bottom of the list was none other than Brent Pry and the Hokies:

Last year: 6-7
CFP ranking history: 10 appearances, highest at No. 13

ESPN Analytics
Make playoff: 12.5% | Win national title: .2%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Until proved otherwise, everyone in the ACC is looking up at Clemson, Miami and SMU. Virginia Tech has a chance to surprise some people, but it fell below expectations last year and has even more questions heading into this season after 24 players entered the transfer portal and others moved on to the NFL.

Toughest test: Aug. 31 vs. South Carolina. Yes, the Hokies will have had all summer to prepare for their most difficult game of the regular season, but so will the Gamecocks, who are leading the race between the two programs to reach the CFP for the first time. ESPN's FPI gives South Carolina a 65.7% chance to win. There are also personal ties involved, as South Carolina coach Shane Beamer's father, Frank, was the longtime head coach of the Hokies, where the younger Beamer was also a former assistant.

What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. A week after opening with the neutral site game against South Carolina, Virginia Tech hosts Vanderbilt, a much-improved SEC team that's no longer a gimme. If the Hokies can win both of those games, it will compensate for the following two weeks against Old Dominion and Wofford. Those head-to-head results could also factor in as tiebreakers if any of the teams are in contention for an at-large bid and have similar records.

What the committee won't like: A three-loss ACC team without a title. Considering three-loss Alabama was the committee's highest-ranked three-loss team last year (and still didn't make the playoff at No. 11 on Selection Day), there's even less margin for error in the ACC. If Virginia Tech loses to South Carolina, at Georgia Tech and against Miami, its playoff hopes are over without an ACC title. There are enough opportunities to impress the committee, but if Virginia Tech can't manage a winning record against its ranked opponents, it's going to be a hard sell in the room without winning the league."

Nov 2, 2024; Syracuse, New York, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies head coach Brent Pry reacts to a play against the Syracuse Orange in the third quarter at JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Clemson is the leader to make the CFP heading into 2025, with a 47.3% chance and they are followed closely by Miami at 46.3%. Go down the list a little bit to find SMU at third with a 21.1% chance to get back to the playoff and then at No. 4 is Virginia Tech, with a 12.5% chance to get to college football's biggest stage.

Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:

1. Miami (No. 9 overall)

2. Clemson (No. 11)

3. SMU (No. 20)

4. Virginia Tech (No.26)

5. Georgia Tech (No. 28)

6. Louisville (No. 41)

7. Florida State (No. 48)

8. Boston College (No. 50)

9. North Carolina (No. 51)

10. Duke (No. 54)

11. NC State (No. 57)

12. Pittsburgh (No. 58)

13. California (No. 60)

14. Syracuse (No. 62)

15. Virginia (No. 63)

16. Stanford (No. 64)

17. Wake Forest (No. 89)

Here is how Virginia Tech's 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:

Aug. 31st- South Carolina (No. 15 Overall)

Sept. 6th- Vanderbilt (No. 56)

Sept. 13th- Old Dominion (No. 97)

Sept. 27th- NC State (No. 57)

Oct. 4th- Wake Forest (No. 89)

Oct. 11th- Georgia Tech (No. 28)

Oct. 24th- California (No. 60)

Nov. 1st- Louisville (No. 41)

Nov. 15th- Florida State (No. 48)

Nov. 22nd- Miami (9th)

Nov. 29th- Virginia (63rd)

If FPI is correct, this is a very favorable schedule for the Hokies, and they are only ranked below two teams they play this season, South Carolina and Miami. FPI has the Hokies 20 spots higher than Bill Connelly's SP+ and seems to be much higher on this team heading into the season than anyone else. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong.