Three Reasons Virginia Tech Can Beat Cal — And Three Reasons It Can Lose

BLACKSBURG — After a 35-33 loss to Pitt in Lane Stadium on Friday, Virginia Tech ventures west for its third road contest in four games when it faces Cal in Berkeley, Calif., on Saturday, Oct. 10. Five days out from the clash, here are three reasons in favor and against the Hokies claiming Saturday's tussle in Berkeley:

Reasons In Favor

Aside from Pitt, Ethan Grunkemeyer has been lights out

Grunkemeyer threw for a career-high 434 yards in Friday's loss to the Panthers, though he also fumbled twice (one lost) and threw two interceptions, including a costly red-zone pick where tight end Luke Reynolds was open. Aside from that, however, Grunkemeyer's been as advertised; in his first four games, he threw for 1,012 yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Through the first five games of the season, Grunkemeyer's 131-of-177 for 1,446 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions while he's taken eight sacks. His quarterback rating of 79.7 is up nearly five points from last year's rating of 75.0. \While the Pitt game represented the clearest aberration from Grunkemeyer's peak, the contest also provided some of his strongest plays, including a four-minute drill where Virginia Tech quickly marched down the field, providing John Love with a 36-yard field goal try to win it.

Virginia Tech's pass rush should cause problems

One of Virginia Tech's most consistent strengths through five games has been its ability to get into opposing backfields. The Hokies lead the ACC with 18 sacks through five contests. Aycen Stevens has been at the forefront of that effort, recording at least one solo sack in each of Virginia Tech's first five games.

That could become particularly important against Cal. Starting quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has already been sacked eight times this season, including twice in each of the Golden Bears' last two games. Virginia Tech's defensive front hasn't always translated its pressure into stops — Pitt still scored 35 points Friday — but the Hokies have consistently shown an ability to disrupt plays before they develop.

Whether Sagapolutele is the quarterback Virginia Tech faces also remains worth monitoring. The sophomore exited Cal's 39-31 loss to UNLV late in the first half after hitting his head on the turf. Although Sagapolutele was medically cleared to return, head coach Tosh Lupoi kept him out for the remainder of the game. Backup Jackson Brousseau completed 19 of his 32 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns in his place.

Cal has struggled to stop the run

If Virginia Tech wants to take some pressure off Grunkemeyer after his first turnover-filled performance of the season, its rushing attack could provide an avenue to do so.

Cal entered its game against UNLV allowing 191 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. The Golden Bears had already surrendered nine rushing touchdowns through four games, including 271 yards on the ground in their season-opening 45-24 loss to UCLA.

That's an enticing matchup for a Virginia Tech backfield that has already shown it can take over games. Jeffrey Overton Jr. rushed for 209 yards in the Hokies' 21-14 win over Boston College, and Virginia Tech shouldn't need Grunkemeyer to throw the ball 41 times again if it can establish Overton and the rest of its rushing attack early.

Cal's issues against the run didn't disappear against UNLV, either. The Rebels rushed for 173 yards, with quarterback Jackson Arnold accounting for 110 yards and two touchdowns himself.

Reasons Against

Cal offers one of those trap games

Virginia Tech's game against Cal could fall into that territory. The Hokies, fresh off a game where they lost to a virtually equal Pitt foe by two, could be prime for a slip-up against a Cal squad that's looked feisty but rarely consistent. The Golden Bears beat Syracuse 21-18 but lost their three other Power Four games against UCLA (45-24), Clemson (24-10) and UNLV (39-31).

Virginia Tech's turnover issues haven't gone away

For as productive as Virginia Tech's offense has been, taking care of the football has become increasingly difficult to ignore.

The problem reached its breaking point against Pitt. Virginia Tech turned the ball over four times during a six-possession stretch despite ultimately outgaining the Panthers 499-295. Grunkemeyer threw his first two interceptions of the season and the Hokies lost two fumbles, helping Pitt erase an early 14-0 deficit and eventually escape Lane Stadium with a two-point victory.

Virginia Tech has coughed up eight fumbles and only recovered one. Its seven lost fumbles are tied for the most in the FBS with Old Dominion.

The cross-country trip adds another variable

Virginia Tech has already become accustomed to playing away from Lane Stadium, but Berkeley presents a different challenge entirely.

Saturday will mark the Hokies' third road game in four weeks, following trips to Maryland and Boston College, and this one requires Virginia Tech to travel roughly 2,500 miles west for its first-ever game at California Memorial Stadium.

The travel itself doesn't mean Virginia Tech will struggle, especially after James Franklin's team already won its first two road contests. It does, however, introduce another variable for a team trying to rebound emotionally and physically from its first loss of the season.

Cal has already shown it can make life difficult for ACC opponents. The Golden Bears knocked off Syracuse on the road and trailed Clemson by just seven entering the fourth quarter before ultimately falling 24-10. Virginia Tech is the more accomplished team through five games, but allowing Cal to hang around deep into Saturday afternoon could make the Hokies' first trip to Berkeley considerably more uncomfortable.

Virginia Tech's clash against California is set for Saturday, Oct. 10, at 3:30 p.m. ET. The contest will be carried on the ACC Network.

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