Virginia Tech Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Hokies' Chances Against Boston College

Here's where my confidence sits for Virginia Tech's ACC opener against Boston College

Sep 19, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies running back Marcellous Hawkins, Jr. (27) breaks the tackle attempt from Maryland Terrapins defensive back Messiah Delhomme (33) to pick up positive yards in the second half at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A nor'easter is headed for Chestnut Hill. Forecasts call for rain through the entire game window, sustained winds of at least 20 mph and gusts around 40. Heading into the ACC opener, my confidence meter on Virginia Tech sits at 80 percent.

ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Hokies an 86.4 percent chance to win. The gap between my number and theirs is the weather.

The 80 percent

Virginia Tech is the better team, and it isn't especially close.

The Hokies are 3-0 for the first time since 2017 and have outscored VMI, Old Dominion, and Maryland 152-50. Grunkemeyer is 79 of 101 for 865 yards with seven touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Penn State transfer is the first Hokies quarterback since Ryan Willis in 2018 to throw for 300 yards in back-to-back games.

Defensive coordinator Brent Pry's group has 14 sacks and 37 tackles for loss, both national highs. Maryland ran 21 times for 64 yards last Saturday.

Boston College (2-1) lost its opener at Cincinnati 34-15, then beat Rutgers 28-21 and Maine 22-16. Against Maine, the Eagles were 38.5-point favorites. They reached the red zone five times and scored zero touchdowns.

Quarterback Mason McKenzie, a Division II transfer from Saginaw Valley State, has thrown for 648 yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions while completing 58.8 percent of his passes. He'll also be without starting center Michael Crounse, who got hurt against Cincinnati and was ruled out on Wednesday night's availability report.

That means a third straight start for redshirt freshman DJ Williams, who has had snapping issues. A young center snapping a wet ball to a quarterback facing the nation's sack leaders is a bad afternoon waiting to happen.

The 20 percent

Weather doesn't change who's better. It changes how many chances the better team gets to show it.

Rain and wind shrink games. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for a talent gap to reach the scoreboard, and more weight on every fumble, shanked punt, and tipped pass.

Virginia Tech has built its hot start through the air. The Hokies rank No. 75 nationally in rushing at 162.7 yards per game. If the wind takes away the deep ball, Marcellous Hawkins Jr. and Jeffrey Overton Jr. have to carry an offense that hasn't needed them to yet.

Boston College has six interceptions in three games. Linebacker Anthony Palano had two against Rutgers, and defensive back KP Price had two against Maine. Grunkemeyer's zero interceptions haven't faced a defense this opportunistic or a forecast like this one.

Virginia Tech's own injury report doesn't help. Left tackle Justin Terry and wide receiver Ayden Greene are both questionable after getting hurt at Maryland. Right guard Montavious Cunningham joined them as questionable on Thursday's report. That's two offensive linemen in question for a game Virginia Tech may have to win on the ground.

Where I land

Eighty percent means I think Virginia Tech wins regardless of the conditions. It doesn't mean the Hokies look anything like the team that hung 73 on VMI.

In a game that will be short on possessions, the turnover margin will probably decide the outcome, and that's where the quarterback gap matters most. Grunkemeyer has zero interceptions. McKenzie has five. Boston College's defense has to take the ball away, because its offense couldn't score a touchdown on five red-zone trips against an FCS team.