Virginia Tech Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Hokies' Chances Against Cal
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Virginia Tech lost for the first time under coach James Franklin last Friday, and my confidence meter went up.
It sits at 75% for Saturday’s trip to Cal. That jump is about the opponent. The Hokies (4–1, 1–1 ACC) outgained Pitt 499–295 and lost 35–33 on four turnovers and a 36-yard miss as time expired. Pitt was a coin flip. Cal (2–3, 1–1) shouldn't be.
The 75%
Cal can’t run the ball and can’t stop anyone who does. The Bears average 95.0 rushing yards per game, 133rd in the FBS, and allow 187.4 at 5.2 a carry. Tech gives up 87.4 on the ground, 14th nationally, and ranks 17th in third-down defense.
That makes Cal a drop-back team against a front with 18 sacks, the most in the ACC. Defensive linemen Aycen Stevens (5.5) and Cortez Harris (five) have more than half of them. Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has already been sacked eight times.
Sagapolutele is still questionable on Thursday night’s availability report, one of eight Bears with that tag. So are leading rusher Adam Mohammed and safety Kingston Lopa, whose five interceptions lead the FBS. Running back Carter Vargas is out. Sagapolutele is in concussion protocol and sat out the contact portion of Tuesday’s practice.
In three games against power-conference opponents, Sagapolutele has averaged 6.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and four interceptions.
It’s also a get-right spot for a run game that managed 65 yards against Pitt. Running back Jeffrey Overton Jr. is averaging 5.9 yards on 77 carries, and Tech ran for 357 on Cal a year ago.
The 25%
Not saying it is likely, but there is a chance interceptions could be a problem on Saturday for Virginia Tech. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer threw 136 passes without an interception, then two against Pitt. Seven of Cal’s nine takeaways are interceptions. If Lopa is in the secondary, this number gets bigger.
Tech has stopped finishing, too. It scored touchdowns on two of six red-zone trips against Boston College and Pitt, and its four FBS opponents have outscored it 55–45 after halftime. The defense hasn’t forced a turnover in three games.
And the line is thin. Left tackle Justin Terry is out again, and linemen Lucas Austin, Roseby Lubintus, and Brody Meadows are all questionable.
Then there’s what nobody can scout. Cal coach Tosh Lupoi handed the play sheet to passing game coordinator Pat McCann at halftime in Las Vegas, and the Bears scored 24 points after the break. Franklin said Monday he couldn’t tell who was calling plays. So Tech is preparing for an offense with one half of the film, across the country, in its third road game in four weeks.
Where I land
Watch the giveaway column. If Tech plays Cal even in turnovers, I don’t see where the Bears find the points. They score on 15 of 16 red-zone trips, but an offense converting 34.7% of its third downs and three of 13 fourth downs doesn’t get there enough.
Seventy-five isn’t saying the game is a lock. Hand Cal three short fields, and this gets uncomfortable fast.
I don’t think that happens. I think the Hokies fly home 5–1, with Georgia Tech coming to Lane Stadium on Oct. 17.
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James Duncan serves as a staff writer for Virginia Tech On SI, covering football, men’s and women’s basketball and recruiting. He is a 2026 Virginia Tech graduate, having majored in Sports Media and Analytics with a minor in Professional and Technical Writing. Duncan previously covered the Washington Commanders as a reporter for The Lead, where he reported on the team throughout an offseason.