Wake Forest vs Fairfield: Preview and Prediction
The college basketball season is officially upon us. The home opener for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in year three of the Steve Forbes era is a home matchup against the Fairfield Stags.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ACCNX/ESPN+
Spread: Wake Forest -12.5
Over/under: 138
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Fairfield Team Overview:
Fairfield plays in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) and went 15-18 last season. KenPom ranked them as the 206th best team, and had them 220th offensively and 190th on the defensive end. Fairfield opened last season with road matchups against Providence and Boston College, and gave both of them a good battle. They lost by only seven to the Friars and by eight to the Eagles. The Stags struggled in conference play, going 8-12 and losing seven games in a row at one point.
Fairfield lost to Cinderella of the NCAA Tournament, Saint Peter’s, 77-63 in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament.
Head coach Jay Young is entering his fourth season at the helm in Fairfield, Connecticut. He has failed to record a winning record or finish better than 7th in the conference. Fairfield came in at 5th in this year's Preseason Coaches’ Poll, and two of their players received preseason recognition.
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The Stags are led by one of the best names in college basketball: Supreme Cook. The 6-9 junior forward averaged 10.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game last year, and he is a preseason First Team All-MAAC selection. Redshirt senior Jake Wojcik is a 6-5 guard who spent his first two years in college at Richmond. Wojcik made 1.9 threes per game last year and was selected to the preseason All-MAAC Third Team.
Young made a move in the portal to add guard Brycen Goodine, who transferred to Fairfield after stints at Syracuse and Providence. The former top-100 recruit failed to carve out a role at both of those schools, but presumably will be a key piece for this mid-major squad.
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Key stat:
Only 24% of opposing field goal attempts vs the Stags last year came from behind the three-point line, which was the sixth-lowest rate in the nation. It’ll be interesting to see if they continue focusing on running teams off the three-point line this season.
This metric provides an interesting dichotomy with this year’s Wake Forest team. The Deacs relied heavily on the three-point shot in the exhibition vs Winston-Salem State — they’ll have their work cut out for them getting open looks from deep.
X-Factor: Supreme Cook
Cook will be a tough matchup — it makes most sense that Andrew Carr will guard him, but it’ll take a team effort to keep him off the glass and contest his looks inside. The minutes distribution at the five spot between Matthew Marsh, Davion Bradford and Zach Keller will be very interesting to see. Coach Forbes has stressed the focus he’s placed on rebounding for this group, so keeping Cook off of the glass tomorrow will be a tough first test.
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Why Wake Forest will cover:
With all new pieces last season, the Demon Deacons outscored William & Mary 46-18 in the first half of the season opener. Forbes will have this group juiced up and ready to go. Cook is a load down low, but Wake has size and strength to throw at him with the 7-1, 250-lb Marsh and the 7-0, 270-lb Bradford. Fairfield has plenty of roster turnover to deal with themselves, as they lost three of their top five scorers. Even with Jao Ituka unavailable for this one, Tyree Appleby and Daivien Williamson will be able to push the pace and create for themselves and their teammates. If the guards get going, the Demon Deacons should break a lead open in the second half and cover the 11.5 point spread.
Why Fairfield will cover:
Coach Young hasn’t gotten this program where he wants it to be yet, but they are trending in the right direction. This team is deeper and should have more of an identity than they did last season, and the fifth place vote in the preseason poll shows that the coaches in their league recognize what Young has with this group. Losing by only seven to eventually Sweet 16 bound Providence in last year’s opener shows that these guys will come out firing and with confidence. The Stags will be pressed to pull off an upset, but they have enough pieces to keep this from getting out of hand.
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Score Prediction: Wake Forest 74 - Fairfield 66
Wake Forest will win this game, but I expect Fairfield to be competitive. Forbes and his staff have some lineup experimenting to do with all of the new pieces that arrived, which could take some time to figure out. Maybe the offense clicks early and the Deacs control the whole game, but it’s more likely that there are growing pains. I also don’t expect much attendance at the Joel either, so the road environment may not be very hostile for the Stags.
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