What The Stats Say About Wake Forest vs. North Carolina
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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are going bowling after an improbable victory against the then number 14-ranked Virginia Cavaliers, 16-9. A program defining victory, and for the Deacs, their second such this season alone.
The season isn't done though, and in fact, they can find a way to backdoor their way into the conference championship, if a lot of dominoes fall their way. To get to that point though, they will need to go through the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are on a two-game winning streak and fighting for bowl eligibility.
So what do the analytics say about the Demon Deacons to continue their impressive season and get their seventh win of the year?
What Do The Stats Say?
The Demon Deacons will once again rely on their defense this season to secure a win in this matchup, having a clear path to victory. The Tar Heels' offense is 100th or worse in every offensive category, except fourth down conversions, where they rank 6th, converting at a 76.92 percent success rate on the season.
They average 16.8 points per game (127th), 291.5 yards per game (128th), 0.275 points per play (115th), 4.8 yards per play (109th), 31.13 percent conversion rate on third down (122nd), and score in the red zone 76.19 percent of the time (112th).
In contrast, the Wake Forest defense has been phenomenal this season, allowing only 21.6 points per game and surrendering only 336.3 to their opponents per game. Their biggest struggle has been in the red zone, where their opponents score 90.91 percent of the time, which ranks 120th in the country.
For the Deacs on offense, finding a way to break through will be key, given the low-scoring win last week compared to the dominant win against Oregon State. Finding consistency at the quarterback position is the key, as they currently rank 115th in the country in expected points added per attempt at -0.13.
One benefit they do enjoy, and another indication of their successful defense, is that they rank 19th in the country in starting field position, averaging a starting position at their own 30-yard line. Finding a way to combine their defensive success, which has been a key point in their wins this season, with an offense that can establish a rhythm will be crucial for them.
The Deacs are hot, and they have been one of the best stories in the ACC. A win this weekend will mark one of their best seasons of the decade and a monumental turnaround for Jake Dickert and his staff. The path to victory is there; now they have to take it.
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JD Andress is an accomplished sports writer and journalist with extensive experience covering a wide range of collegiate sports. JD has provided in-depth coverage of the TCU Horned Frogs and the Texas Longhorns. He looks forward to being part of the coverage of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. His experience spans various sports, including football, men’s and women’s basketball, baseball, rifle, equestrian, and others, reflecting his broad interest and commitment to sports journalism.