What The Stats Say About Wake Forest vs. Oregon State
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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons continue their road trip, but this time, they have to fly to the opposite side of the country. They are looking to start a winning streak against the Oregon State Beavers.
While the Beavers are 0-6 on the year, and still in search of their first win, don't let the record fool you; they are a tougher team to handle than the numbers next to their name would indicate at first glance. They have three single-digit losses on the year, including their last two games: a 27-24 loss to Houston and a 27-23 loss to App State.
What do the analytics say about the Demon Deacons' odds to win their fourth game of the season?
Hold Strong, Hold Steady
The Demon Deacons have been the talk of the season, thanks to their sheer will to bend, not break —a methodology that has followed them all season. While it feels like they have been one of the best in the country, the numbers actually don't support that argument. They rank 69th in the country at defensive stoppage rate, forcing defenses to turn the ball over or punt, 60.9 percent of the time.
That number bodes well for them in their matchup against the Beavers, who are also middle of the pack on offense, finding success 43.3 percent of the time, which is good enough for 64th in college football. Holding them out of the endzone and getting early stops will be a priority for them in this one.
The good thing for the Demon Deacons is that their defense has one of the best Net EPA per drive groups in the country, worth -0.69, which is 23rd in all of FBS. Holding the Beavers' offense to their season average of 7.69 yards to gain will be the difference in this one.
It won't be all on the defense either, as the offense, led by Robby Ashford and Demond Claiborne, will have to do its part as well. The central piece to that, in the same breath, is that we just discussed the Deacs' defense; their offense will also need to battle third-down conversions.
The Beavers' defense is the number ONE third-down distance group in the country, as opposing offenses have an average of 9.61 yards per third-down opportunity. Not allowing themselves to be in those opportunities will be the difference between their fourth win and giving another team their first win of the season.
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JD Andress is an accomplished sports writer and journalist with extensive experience covering a wide range of collegiate sports. JD has provided in-depth coverage of the TCU Horned Frogs and the Texas Longhorns. He looks forward to being part of the coverage of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. His experience spans various sports, including football, men’s and women’s basketball, baseball, rifle, equestrian, and others, reflecting his broad interest and commitment to sports journalism.