College Football Upset Picks for Week 11 (Missouri Will Hand Texas A&M First Loss of Season)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 5, 2025

Missouri is set as an underdog against Texas A&M in Week 11 of the college football season. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

We had a successful week of upsets this past weekend. I cashed in on both NC State to upset Georgia Tech and Oklahoma to take down Tennessee. We also barely missed Vanderbilt beating Texas.

Let's move on to Week 11 of the college football season, and I'm back to hunting for some upsets this weekend, including one team to suffer their first loss of the 2025 campaign.

CFB Week 11 Upset Picks

• Missouri +220 vs. Texas A&M via BetMGM
• Wake Forest +205 vs. Virginia via Caesars
• Kentucky +140 vs. Florida via BetMGM

Missouri +220 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M's pass defense has been fantastic this season, but its run defense leaves something to be desired, which could come back to haunt them against a run-first Missouri offense. 51.69% of the offensive yards gained by the Tigers come from running the football, which is the 15th-highest rate in college football. They're also extremely effective at running the football, averaging 5.64 yards per carry and ranking 28th in the country in Rush EPA. Now, they face a Texas A&M team that ranks 90th in opponent rush success rate.

Missouri is primed to be in the mix to hand the Aggies' their first loss of the season.

Wake Forest +205 vs. Virginia

I have been waiting for the time to fade this Virginia team, and I believe this is the spot to do it. The Cavaliers aren't nearly as good as their record indicates, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted EPA per play with a net yards per play of -0.31. It's baffling that they've been able to hold on to an undefeated record in ACC play. The Demon Decons outrank them in both of those stats, coming in at 40th in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards per Play of +1.13.

It's time for Virginia to suffer its first ACC loss of the season.

Kentucky +140 vs. Florida

Florida continues to ride on its name brand this season, but make no mistake about it, this is a bad football team. The Gators rank 109th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play, while sporting a net yards per play of -0.08 and a net success rate of just +0.4%. Kentucky, on the other hand, ranks 72nd in net adjusted EPA per play with a net yards per play of +0.03 and a net success rate of +1.9%.

From a metrics standpoint, there is not much to separate between these two teams, yet the Wildcats are set as significant home underdogs. I'll ride with Kentucky to pull off the upset.

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