Can WVU Avoid Disaster? Here's What the BPI Says About Their Chances vs. K-State

The Mountaineers are aiming for a season sweep of Kansas State.

Feb 28, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Chance Moore (13) shoots a free throw during the second half against the BYU Cougars at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Things are starting to wind down as there are just two games left in the regular season for the West Virginia Mountaineers, who have zero margin for error at this point. Tonight, they'll be going for the season sweep against a reeling Kansas State squad that has lost three straight and nine of its last ten.

What the BPI Says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index, the Mountaineers have a 58.1% chance to keep their tournament hopes alive while Kansas State has a 41.9% chance to play spoiler.

As much as K-State has struggled this season, this feels a little trap gamey to me. On paper, it looks like an easy win and one that would set you up to potentially be one step closer to the NCAA Tournament. But every time the Mountaineers have secured a key win this season, they've followed it up with a loss. Take the loss to last-place Utah after the win over UCF, for example. Also, Kansas State gave WVU a scare in Morgantown earlier this season, so there's that piece of it as well.

West Virginia's recent games

The Mountaineers really put a huge dent in their NCAA Tournament chances by losing three straight games, including that disappointing performance against Utah. But they made a lot of progress in making up that three-game stretch with a huge win over No. 19 BYU. WVU pounded the ball inside, outscoring the Cougars by 12 in the paint, and dominated the glass, pulling down 18 offensive rebounds. Brenen Lorient remains the best offensive playmaker right now for the Old Gold and Blue, reaching double figures in nine straight contests. He had 10 points and six rebounds in the win over the Wildcats back on January 27th.

Kansas State's recent games

K-State fired Jerome Tang and won their first game without him, downing Baylor by 16. Since that game, the Wildcats have dropped three straight, where they were blown out by Texas Tech and lost by nine to Colorado and TCU. In their past two games, they've turned the ball over a staggering 31 times, resulting in 48 points the other way. West Virginia's suffocating defense can force teams into some bad decisions, and if K-State isn't careful, this one could get away from them quickly. For what it's worth, in the first meeting with WVU, they only turned it over 10 times, resulting in just eight points.