ESPN BPI Lays Out West Virginia's Chances to Knock Off No. 9 Texas Tech

The Mountaineers have next to no shot of beating the Red Raiders, according to the computers.

West Virginia University guard Toby Okani | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

The West Virginia Mountaineers are hoping to hunt down another top-10 win this afternoon in Lubbock as they take on No. 9 Texas Tech.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 17.1% chance to pull off the upset, while Texas Tech has an 82.9% chance of getting back on track and protecting its home floor.

Texas Tech is 13-2 at home this season and has a high-powered offense that is going to be a challenge for WVU to keep up with. I do think the Mountaineers keep it somewhat close, but winning the game feels out of the cards.

West Virginia's recent games

Feb 19, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) grabs a loose ball during the second half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at WVU Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Last Saturday, WVU fought their tails off on the road but ultimately came up short in overtime to Baylor. The Bears made 27 free throws on the day, accounting for 36% of their points. While WVU could have pointed the finger at the officiating, Darian DeVries instead was more concerned with the bad fouls that his team could eliminate.

The last time out for the Mountaineers created some unnecessary stress for fans late. West Virginia had a nine-point lead with 15 seconds left and had Jonathan Powell at the line for a one-and-one. A missed free throw, a couple of crazy threes, and bad turnovers later, Cincinnati trailed by three and had the ball with the chance to tie. Fortunately for WVU, Tyler Betsey missed a wide-open three at the buzzer.

Texas Tech's recent games

Feb 15, 2025; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Federiko Federiko (33) slaps hands with Texas Tech Red Raiders forward JT Toppin (15) after a play during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Texas Tech's last two times out have produced completely different results - a near 40-point blowout win over Oklahoma State and a shocking road loss at TCU. JT Toppin dropped 32 points, 12 points, and three blocks. In their loss to TCU, he was still active on both ends of the floor but limited to just 14 points.

MORE STORIES FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SI

How to Watch & Listen to West Virginia at No. 9 Texas Tech

West Virginia's Three Keys to Brew Up Another Top 10 Upset in Lubbock

Zac Alley Reveals What West Virginia's Defense Will Look Like in 2025 & Beyond

Rich Rod Gives Brutally Honest Assessment of Team After Winter Workouts