Why is Popular Bracketologist Still Considering West Virginia for NCAA Tournament?

Losing to Kansas State wiped away all hope for West Virginia to make the NCAA Tournament. That seems to be the clear consensus in the Mountain State, but is there actually still a chance? Well, I guess so.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has West Virginia listed as a team to consider, the second team outside of the "next four out" grouping.

Lunardi's current NCAA Tournament bubble

Feb 28, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Honor Huff (3) shoots a three point shot over BYU Cougars guard Robert Wright III (1) during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Last Four Byes: Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Ohio State

Last Four In: SMU, Santa Clara, New Mexico, Indiana

First Four Out: VCU, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: San Diego State, USC, California, Seton Hall

Next: Stanford, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arizona State

How is this even possible?

Short answer? I don't really know.

My best guess as to why? Two things: the respect for the Big 12 and the opportunities left on the table, and two, an incredibly weak bubble.

Should West Virginia beat UCF on Friday, it will give the Mountaineers a 9-9 record in Big 12 play. That's not as much of a guarantee to make the dance as having a winning record, but still, it's an impressive mark, especially when, in this instance, they would have wins over Kansas, BYU, and sweeps over Cincinnati and UCF.

If you ask me, they still have too many bad losses for it to matter. I mean, even if they got red-hot out of nowhere and made it to the Big 12 championship game next week, is that enough? Potentially, but that's a big IF.

The one thing WVU does have on its side is the number of Quad 1 wins, which they have five of. Virtually every other team in college basketball that has a minimum of five Quad 1 victories is expected to make the tournament. In that previously mentioned scenario, they would add at least one more Quad 1 win in the conference tournament, giving the committee something to think about.

The bubble is just incredibly weak, though. Like, how in the world is Auburn, who is 16-14 currently, the second team out of the field? Cincinnati, which WVU swept and has the same record as, is the fourth team in the "first four out" grouping.

At this point, the only path I see is for the Mountaineers to cut down the nets in Kansas City — good luck with that. We could be having a very different conversation if they didn't lallygag their way through the first 30 minutes of the games against Utah and Kansas State.