2-10 Incoming? Here's What the Metrics Say for WVU vs. What I Believe

For a week, West Virginia fans can take a badly needed break from watching their football team after a brutal 2-4 (0-3) start to the 2025 season. With six games left, the Mountaineers are still trying to solve the quarterback position, find the right mix along the offensive line, and get healthy.

Reaching a bowl game seems like a stretch at this point, but how many more games can WVU win? According to the ESPN FPI, that number is zero. Today, we look at West Virginia's chance to win each game, according to the FPI analytics, and where I disagree.

at UCF - 26.2%

My percentage: 48%

I know the Mountaineers are down bad right now, but only 26%? I'm not sure if WVU wins the game, but I can't see how the Knights are getting THIS much love. In two Big 12 games, their defense has allowed 61 points. I like West Virginia's chances to figure some things out over the bye week and give themselves a chance to win this game.

vs. TCU - 19.3%

My percentage: 20%

If the pass coverage issues versus BYU spill over into the next two games for WVU, this one could get really ugly. Josh Hoover is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country who no one talks about. The FPI is pretty spot on here.

at Houston - 27.4%

My percentage: 35%

I'll give West Virginia a slightly stronger chance to win this game, simply because I don't believe in Houston's offense. Zac Alley needs his unit to play up to par, and if they do, this could be one of those first-to-17 wins kind of games.

vs. Colorado - 41.4%

My percentage: 51%

An underdog? To Colorado? At home? Oh, boy. This will be a matchup of two of the worst teams in the Big 12, and because this one's at home and Khalil Wilkins or maybe even Scotty Fox will have more experience under their belt, I'll give the Mountaineers the slight edge.

at Arizona State - 10.5%

My percentage: 5%

The Sun Devils haven't played their best football yet, which is a scary thought for the rest of the Big 12, including West Virginia. By the time the Mountaineers get them, they will be firing on all cylinders.

vs. Texas Tech - 11.7%

My percentage: 1%

I feel like an analysis here is just fluff, to be honest. Unless West Virginia strikes gold with one of these young quarterbacks, the offensive line finally figures something out, and Texas Tech is banged up, I don't see this ending well for WVU.