Beyond the Predictions: Breaking Down Every WVU Game by Confidence

My game-by-game predictions for West Virginia's 2026 season finally dropped and today, we are going to go a step further by breaking down each game by confidence level — locks (wins), locks (losses), should win, likely losses, and coin flips.

Locks (wins): vs. Coastal Carolina, vs. UT Martin, vs. Cincinnati

Sep 1, 2018; Columbia, SC, USA; A Coastal Carolina Chanticleers helmet sits on the field prior to the start of the NCAA football game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Westerholt-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports

The first two were no-brainers, but I bet you didn't expect Cincinnati to be here. The way I see it is that Cincinnati is one of the most inexperienced teams in the Big 12, and they are the ones that truly have to replace Brendan Sorsby's production, not Texas Tech. West Virginia has won both matchups in this series since the Bearcats joined the Big 12, and with it being a home game, I don't see any way WVU drops this one unless the Bearcats have A LOT go their way. You may think it's a little strong to put them in this category, and I would understand.

Locks (losses): at Texas Tech

Oct 18, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Will Hammond (15) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is the only game on the schedule where I think West Virginia doesn't stand a chance. The Red Raiders' defense is going to be not only among the best in the Big 12, but in the country. Beating them in Lubbock would require every bounce and call going WVU's way, and even then it may not be enough to get the job done. They have turned into the L.A. Dodgers of the Big 12, and that's hard to compete with, especially for a coaching staff that's only in its second year.

Should win: at Iowa State, vs. Kansas

Iowa State football head coach Jimmy Rogers talks to media after first day practice at the university’s Stark Performance Center in Ames, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

On paper, yeah, Iowa State looks like they should be a part of the locks (win) category and swap places with Cincinnati. That two-letter word before their name is THE reason I don't have this game as a lock. Jack Trice is an incredibly challenging place to play, regardless of how good/bad the Cyclones are.

Lance Leipold has done of the most incredible jobs in the history of college football when you think about it. Kansas was down and down BAD. He pulled them back to relevancy and even had them ranked and hosting College GameDay just a few years ago. They have regressed over the past two seasons, and life without Jalon Daniels could keep them there, at least for 2026.

Likely a loss: vs. Virginia (in Charlotte), vs. Houston

The Hoos and Cougs are two of the most experienced teams in the country and are salty on the defensive side of the ball. I give West Virginia more of a chance against Houston late in the year after they have some chemistry built up, and the fact that it's at home helps, too. I nearly considered both of these coin flips, but the reality is both Virginia and Houston are in a better spot right now. The Mountaineers can definitely win one or both of these games, but I'm leaning toward a loss for both.

Coin flips: vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Arizona, at TCU, at Utah

In my prediction article, I have West Virginia going 2-2 in these games, winning both on the road and dropping the two at home...go figure, right? Beating TCU and Utah on the road? How?

Well, TCU is still trying to get back to where they were a few years ago, and I'm not convinced that they are any better than they've been the last two seasons, when they won nine games.

And with Utah, they are super young, ranking near the bottom of the league in career snaps, and will be in year one of the Morgan Scalley era. Yes, he has been in the program forever, but it's still a big change from Kyle Whittingham. If you really think about it, how many of these coach-in-waiting situations actually pan out?

As for the two home games, those are two dynamic offensive attacks that Zac Alley's unit will have to face and both feel like a whoever has the ball last wins type of feel to it.

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