ESPN FPI Gives WVU Strong Odds of Avoiding an Upset vs. Coastal Carolina

The West Virginia fan base is entering the 2026 season with a ton of excitement, believing this will be the start of getting the program back on track with several young key pieces to build with into the future.

This Saturday, we will get our first look at this new-look roster when they play host to the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Coastal Carolina

According to the ESPN Power Football Index (FPI), West Virginia has an 85.8% chance to open the season with a win, while Coastal Carolina has a 14.2% chance to spoil the party and send Mountaineer fans home in a sour mood, thinking they are in for another long season.

Too high? Too low? Just Right?

Rich Rodriguez — WVU Athletics Communications

This is a little on the low side. I totally understand not having West Virginia at 95%+ because of all the question marks surrounding the revamped roster, and, too, Coastal Carolina isn't the type of program that's just glad to collect a paycheck and have the experience playing in front of 60,000. This is a successful Group of Six program, regardless of who has been their head coach, aside from the recently fired Tim Beck, who lasted all of three seasons.

The reason most national pundits and analytical projections like these are fairly low on West Virginia is because of the lack of production at key spots, such as quarterback, receiver, defensive line, and corner.

I firmly believe Mike Hawkins Jr. will be exactly what the staff is hoping for, but heading into the season, he has just a handful of games under his belt, allowing him to sort of fly under the radar, despite being a highly-touted recruit coming out of high school, as well as heavily coveted in the transfer portal.

The last time it happened...

Oct 3, 2020; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats helmet during the game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the South Florida Bulls at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports

Yeah, the Mountaineers fell to Ohio last year, but the last time that West Virginia lost to a Group of Six opponent AT HOME was in 2003 to Cincinnati. Going back to the pre-Big 12 days can be a little wacky because some may not consider the Big East a power conference once Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech left, and USF, Louisville, and Cincinnati entered, but that '03 loss to Cincy would still be the last loss to a G5/6 team at home.

The Mountaineers and Chanticleers are slated to tee the ball up at high noon on Saturday on TNT.

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