The ESPN FPI Predicts Every Game on WVU Football's 2026 Schedule

Rich Rodriguez is feeling pretty confident about his roster in 2026, believing they will exceed everyone's expectations, including the opinion of the computers over at ESPN.

Earlier this week, the Football Power Index (FPI) was updated and released the initial projections for every team, including the odds for West Virginia in each of their games.

What the ESPN FPI says for each game (% = WVU's chance to win)

West Virginia University head coach Rich Rodriguez | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

vs. Coastal Carolina — 85.8%
vs. UT Martin — 96.3%
vs. Virginia (in Charlotte) — 27.2%
vs. Oklahoma State — 49.1%
at Iowa State — 45.5%
vs. Arizona — 40.3%
vs. Cincinnati — 39.9%
at TCU — 24.4%
at Texas Tech — 6.3%
vs. Kansas — 50.4%
vs. Houston — 38.1%
at Utah — 18.7%

WVU's record if the matchup predictor is accurate would be 3-9 (1-8). Last year's summer projections had the Mountaineers going 6-6 in 2025, getting the Ohio and Utah games wrong. The computer did predict the other 10 games correctly, for what it's worth.

The games the FPI should have the Mountaineers favored in

Jul 7, 2026; Frisco, TX, USA; Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris speaks to reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

vs. Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, vs. Cincinnati

Okay, the matchup with the Pokes, I can understand. I see it as a coin flip as well, but with it being home and still early in the year for Oklahoma State, WVU is getting them at the perfect time, so they should be a slight favorite.

As I've mentioned before, playing in Ames is never easy, but if there's one year where you can walk into Jack Trice and feel pretty good about leaving with a W, it's this fall. Jimmy Rogers is in full-blown rebuild mode, and that roster is nowhere near ready to compete in this league. I think we'll see the percentages for this one flip significantly ahead of game week.

Cincinnati has a veteran offensive line, and I guess that's why a lot of folks (and the computers) believe they have a chance to be decent this season. I just don't see it with the rest of the roster. The Bearcats have always struggled against the Mountaineers and are 2-9-1 in Morgantown. I can't see them having the offensive firepower to keep up with Mike Hawkins Jr., Cam Cook, and Co.

The games WVU should have more of a fighting chance in

vs. Virginia, vs. Arizona

These are games I'm not sure West Virginia wins, but could definitely pull out if they play well. Neither of these teams is on Texas Tech's level, which I think is the only guaranteed loss on the Mountaineers' schedule, barring some crazy amount of injuries for the Red Raiders.

Virginia is a good, experienced team, but I like West Virginia's chances. Again, not saying they win the game, but if it gets in a back-and-forth affair, I would give the advantage to WVU with Mike Hawkins Jr. outplaying Beau Pribula or Eli Holstein. Not to mention, there will be a large contingent of Mountaineer fans there, seemingly making this a home game type of atmosphere.

Arizona will be a tough matchup as well, but it's still fairly early in the season, and it's at home. That's a tough travel for the Wildcats, and coming east is never easy for Pacific Standard Time zone schools. Noah Fifita can really fling it around and could carve up WVU's defense. But if Zac Alley can get to him and force the Wildcats to be more balanced, it could tilt in the Mountaineers' favor, especially if they clog up the run game.

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