FPI Matchup Predictor Doesn't Like WVU's Chances at Iowa State — But Why?

Will the Mountaineers drop back-to-back games? The FPI thinks so.

West Virginia University quarterback Mike Hawkins Jr. | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

It's the first taste of adversity for the 2026 West Virginia Mountaineers, and now, they will have to overcome it in what will be their first true road trip of the season in Ames.

Rich Rodriguez-coached teams typically do a good job of bouncing back after a disappointing performance, and I would expect that to be the case this Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium, which is one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12 Conference.

Iowa State also lost its Big 12 opener last week to Utah, 31-17. Early on, it looked as if the Utes were going to blow them out of the water and cruise to an easy victory. The Cyclones had other plans. They bowed up defensively, and before you know it, they made it a one-score game with just a handful of minutes left in the fourth quarter before Devon Dampier put the dagger in them.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Iowa State

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 37.7% chance to get back in the win column and leave Ames in a good mood, while Iowa State has a 62.3% chance to get the win, which would be their first over a Power Four team this season.

Too high? Too low? Just Right?

West Virginia University running back Cam Cook | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

This seems way too low to me. I don't care how poor West Virginia's defense looked last week. This team is much better than what they showed last Saturday, and this Iowa State offense is not the same beast as the one led by Drew Mestemaker. The Cyclones may be inclined to throw it a little bit more after seeing the type of success OSU had, but they won't veer far off from their identity, which is running the football.

The Mountaineers did a pretty good job against a similar offense in Virginia, which had more of a running threat at quarterback in Beau Pribula. Jaylen Raynor can run, but he's not necessarily looking to do so. Plus, he has a tendency to put the ball in harm's way throughout his career. If WVU can get pressure on him, it should be a completely different-looking unit this week. This feels more like a 50/50 game with a slight edge to WVU. This percentage really makes me scratch my head.

The Mountaineers and Cyclones will kick off the action at 12 p.m. ET from Jack Trice Stadium. The game will be televised on TNT.