No One Expects WVU to Beat Utah, But This is the Blueprint for an Upset

It's not going to be easy, but there is a recipe for West Virginia to pull off the upset this weekend and beat Utah despite being double-digit underdogs. What could that recipe be? Here are my top three keys to the game.

Neutralize the run game

Sep 6, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes running back Wayshawn Parker (1) runs for a touchdown against the Cal Poly Mustangs during the second half at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Seems like a pretty obvious one, right? This is part of the plan every week, but against the Utes, and it can be the difference in winning or losing. Last week against Texas Tech, Utah generated 101 rushing yards on 33 carries. Their longest run of the day was eight yards, meaning they were unable to really uncork the run game. This forced QB Devon Dampier to drop back and throw it 38 times, which is not exactly what they want to do. Although they are a spread offense, they want to be a power run team. Dampier can sling it, but it's not the strength of what they do.

During the first three games of the season, West Virginia's defense was stout against the run. Last week versus Kansas? Not so much. They allowed 259 yards, giving up 6.6 yards per tote. If that happens again or if the Utes find half as much success, it's going to be a long evening.

Knock Utah off schedule

The Utes are among the best 3rd down conversion offenses in the entire country, converting an absurd 61% of third downs. Why? They're always moving forward and rarely allow a negative yardage play to happen. They stay on schedule.

Jed Drenning found these insane stats about Utah's offense — "When it's third down and 1-3 yards to go, that makes up more than 40% of all their third downs. Their success rate in those situations is 83%, 87% when they run it. 3rd and 4-6 yards, still a manageable situation, that's what they find themselves in a third of the time, so 74% of their third downs are either intermediate or short. 3 & 7 or more, which is only 26% of the time, only then does their third down success rate drop to 33%."

Getting them behind the sticks forces Dampier to put the ball in the air. Blitzing Dampier is not a good idea, considering he's completing 84% of his passes when blitzed, but if you can get him in 3rd and long, you can send numbers and force that ball out quickly underneath, meaning now all you have to do is rally to the ball and tackle. When he throws it deep downfield, it typically spells trouble for the Utes. He's completed just 1-of-14 pass attempts of 20+ yards.

Manufacture a consistent rushing attack

Sep 6, 2025; Athens, Ohio, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez talks with West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Jaylen Henderson (13) during the fourth quarter against the Ohio Bobcats at Peden Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Cyncir Bowers is doubtful, and Tye Edwards is questionable. If both become ruled out, that leaves West Virginia with just Clay Ash, Diore Hubbard, Tyler Jacklich, Andre Devine, and possibly Kannon Katzer. Hubbard will certainly get an extended look, but the Mountaineers will likely need to rely on the legs of the quarterback, be it Jaylen Henderson, Max Brown, Scotty Fox, or Khalil Wilkins. Also, the quick game — bubble, quick outs, RPOs, screens, drags, slants — all serve as an extension of the ground game.

Neutralize the run game

Knock Utah off schedule

Manufacture a consistent rushing attack

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