No Respect? SP+ Model Projects WVU to Get Crushed by Texas Tech

Rich Rodriguez's West Virginia Mountaineers are hoping to be the story of the college football weekend in Week 10 with headlines all over the country reading something like, "Mountaineers Stun Texas Tech," or "WVU Outguns Red Raiders in West Texas Shootout."

Winning this game would put WVU back in the conversation for the AP Top 25, although that poll is not the preeminent set of rankings now. Still, it would open some eyes, and with a home game against Kansas waiting in the on-deck circle, it's a real opportunity for the Old Gold and Blue to grab the nation's attention and start talking about them in a different light.

Bill Connelly's SP+ model's prediction says...

Each week, we take a look at what Bill Connelly's SP+ model on ESPN predicts, and, well, let's just say you're not going to be in love with it this week. The projection? Texas Tech 41, West Virginia 19.

This game could be a multi-score win for the Red Raiders, but I'm not sure it will come with the Mountaineers failing to reach 20 points. Mike Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook are too good to be held to fewer than 20 points, especially against a run defense that has not played well against teams that can really run the ball like Cincinnati and Houston.

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Why West Virginia has a much stronger chance than the projection gives it

It's simple: when you have the best quarterback on the field, you're going to have a chance to win. Thomas Castellanos is a good player; don't get me wrong — and WVU may make him look elite — but Hawkins is a top-10 quarterback in the country. Zac Alley's defense doesn't need to be perfect or even good to win this game — they just have to be able to get a handful of stops and not give up explosives every time you turn around. If they do that and Hawkins and Co. play a clean game, anything can happen.

The Mountaineers and Red Raiders are slated to tee the ball up at 9:30 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on ESPN.

Following the game, be sure to stop by our YouTube page (West Virginia On SI) for the Mountaineer Postgame Show with former WVU running back Eugene Napoleon and me. We'll recap the action and take a peek at the road ahead for the Mountaineers.

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