College Football National Championship Prediction Market on Kalshi Different Than Rankings

The College Football Playoff committee released the first playoff ranking of the season, and there are differences across the board compared to Kalshi’s National Championship market. That starts with Georgia, which is ranked No. 2 in the CFP rankings but leads the Kalshi market at 22%.

No.1-ranked Miami sits directly behind Georgia at 15%. Outside of Georgia and Miami making up the top two spots in the rankings and on Kalshi, not much is the same. A $10 trade profits $33.09 on Georgia and $52.86 on Miami winning.

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College Football Playoff rankings

Miami
Georgia
Utah
Indiana
Alabama
Kentucky
Texas
UCLA
BYU
Ole Miss
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Tennessee
LSU
Texas Tech
Wake Forest
Houston
Missouri
Iowa
USC
South Carolina
Arizona
Oregon
Florida
Boise State

Where Kalshi and the committee differ

Kalshi and the rankings differ on Notre Dame and Utah. The committee questions No. 11 Notre Dame’s schedule strength, and its loss to BYU certainly doesn’t help. On the contrary, Kalshi continues to list the Irish as one of the top contenders on the board at 13%, the third-highest price on the board.

Other notable programs sitting higher on Kalshi than their rankings include No. 12 Ohio State and No. 14 LSU. Both are sitting with top-10 prices to win the National Championship.

For No. 3 Utah, it’s clear that the rankings are bullish on the Utes and their 8-0 record to this point. Kalshi, though, lists them with just a 2% chance to win the National Championship, which is outside the top-10 highest prices.

Similar to Utah sitting well below its rankings on Kalshi, No. 6 Kentucky, No. 8 UCLA, and No. 9 BYU all sit at a 3% price or less to win the championship this season.

Playoff implications in Week 10

Week 10 college football will go down as the most impactful of the season, with eight games having major CFP implications, including potential playoff elimination scenarios. Below are the matchups this week that could impact the rankings:

No. 9 BYU vs. No. 3 Utah
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 18 Missouri
No. 8 UCLA vs. Minnesota
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 14 LSU
No. 23 Oregon vs. No. 12 Ohio State
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 13 Tennessee
No 1. Miami vs. No. 11 Notre Dame
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Ole Miss

In all liklihood, several teams could be elimiated from true content this weekend, including Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, and BYU.

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