Phil Steele Says WVU is in the Worst Spot Any Big 12 Team Will Face This Season

When you look at what West Virginia and Kansas have done up to this point, there doesn't appear to be a major gap between the two, at least not as big as the spread for this matchup suggests. Depending on where you look, the Mountaineers are nearly two-touchdown underdogs for their Big 12 opener against the Jayhawks — a team they've historically had a bunch of success against.

Why is the line so inflated? And can the Mountaineers stun everyone and leave Lawrence with a 1-0 start in league play? We asked college football expert Phil Steele those very questions on this morning's episode of In the Gun.

Phil's pick and analysis:

“This one, I think, it’s purely the situation. It’s probably the worst situation that’s going to happen in the Big 12 this year. As you mentioned, West Virginia, emotional home win, Backyard Brawl against Pitt. Celebrate well after the win. Great, great win. Now, they have to go on the road and travel. Meanwhile, Kansas is at home, and I always love this situation — at home, off a bye, off a loss. So they’ve been stewing in a loss for two weeks. They’re at home off a bye, fresh, rested. It’s a massive scheduling advantage. Now, I’ll say this: I liked Pitt to beat West Virginia last week. They were up by 10. West Virginia got Pitt back for last year when West Virginia led that thing by 10 and then blew it late and lost by four, so that was good to see. I like how (Nicco) Marchiol played at the end and at the start of the game.

"I think West Virginia has played beyond my expectations so far this year, but I also really like this Kansas team. Jalon Daniels looks like the Jalon Daniels of a few years back. I remember last year at the start of the year, he had a lot of interceptions. This year, he’s got nine touchdowns, two interceptions, and he’s also a dangerous runner. They actually led Missouri, on the road, in the fourth quarter and lost by eleven. I just think it’s the best situation that any team’s going to have in the Big 12 this year. I’m going to go with Kansas to get the win, but this West Virginia team has surprised me so far.”

As Phil mentioned, the situation has to be the only reason here. I studied Kansas' game against Missouri very closely, and I don't see a team that's significantly better than West Virginia. They have a leaky offensive line, a run game that's yet to truly get going, and a defense that is having a tough time tackling through three games. Maybe I'm not giving the situation enough weight here, but I can see the Mountaineers keeping this close with a chance to win.

Phil's pick and analysis:

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