So You're Telling Me There's a Chance? FPI Reveals WVU's Win Probability vs. Texas Tech

The much-needed bye week has come and gone for the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are now fresh and rested, searching for their third straight win and to become bowl-eligible.

Before the break, the Mountaineers came out on top in a couple of nail-biting finishes against Cincinnati at home and then TCU on the road, where the defense, believe it or not, came through with several key stops, including a strip sack to clinch the win in the final minute.

Texas Tech, however, suffered its first loss of the season a couple of weeks ago at Cincinnati, but got back in the win column this past week, taking down Arizona 34-26, and made a quarterback change, going from Will Hammond to Florida State transfer Thomas Castellanos.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Texas Tech

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has just a 10.6% chance of springing the upset over the Red Raiders, while Texas Tech has been given an 89.4% chance to extend its home winning streak to 14, which would be a program record, and also move them to 8-1 on the season.

Too high? Too low? Just Right?

West Virginia University football sings 'Take Me Home, Country Roads' | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

10.6% is certainly a long shot, but it is greater than zero.

It might be a tad too low, but not far off enough for me to question if the computer needs recalibrating. Texas Tech has been a good team all year, but I think with the change to Castellanos, they went from pretty good to a true national contender. Is he one of the top quarterbacks in college football? No, but he is dynamic with his legs, has a cannon for an arm, and has a strong supporting cast all around him, especially in the backfield with J'Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey.

West Virginia's defense has struggled all year, but even more so against quarterbacks who can move the pocket and extend plays. Hammond is a solid quarterback too, but I think if he were starting this game for Texas Tech, I'd probably have WVU's chances at 35-40%, which is significantly higher than what they are right now, per the FPI model.

Anything can happen because of how explosive West Virginia's offense is, but they are going to need to play a clean game and be even better defensively than they were against TCU to have a shot at this thing.

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