The 7 Biggest Game-Changing Plays in West Virginia's Loss to Texas Tech

The shootout in Lubbock last night between West Virginia and Texas Tech was wild. It felt like both teams were on pace for one billion yards and points in the first half before both defenses came up with multiple stops at varying times in the final 30 minutes.

The Mountaineers had several opportunities to win the game, and at one point had a 74.4% chance to pull off the upset, according to ESPN analytics. There were a bunch of game-changing plays that took place over the final quarter that were big momentum swingers in both directions.

Here are those specific plays and what WVU's win probability was at the time of the play. The ones in bold are the plays I believe impacted the game the most.

Notable plays in the second half — WVU win probability at given time

(3rd, 1:12) Mike Hawkins' rushing TD to go up 48-41 — 52.9%
(4th, 14:51) Forced a punt on the ensuing drive — 65.4%
(4th, 10:46) DPI on Nick Taylor on 3rd & 7 — 60.9%
(4th, 9:57) Castellanos 19-yard pass to Kenny Johnson on 3rd & 6 —55.2%
(4th, 9:36) Williams rushes for 0 yards, makes it 3rd and 10 on WVU 40 — 64.5%
(4th, 9:03) DPI on Chams Diagne on 3rd and 10 — 52.5%
(4th, 8:00) Incomplete pass on 3rd & long, force a FG attempt — 69.7%
(4th, 7:55) Field goal is good to make it 48-44 — 63.3%
(4th, 7:07) Cam Cook stuffed on 3rd & 1 — 55.5%
(4th, 4:46) Castellanos' pass incomplete on 3rd & 3 — 74.4%
(4th, 4:29) Castellanos' prayer on 4th down caught for 26 yards — 45%
(4th, 3:40) Castellanos 16-yard run to the WVU 7 — 28.1%
(4th, 2:44) Castellanos TD pass to Johnson to go up 51-48 — 15.7%
(4th, 1:55) Hawkins sacked on 4th down — 2.5%
(4th, 1:30) WVU forces turnover on downs — 4.7%
(4th, 1:24) Hawkins sacked for a safety — 3.1%
(4th, 1:24) WVU's onside kick attempt recovered by TTU — 0%

(4th, 14:51) Forced a punt on the ensuing drive — 65.4%

This was huge. The defense found some rhythm, getting its fourth straight stop to begin the second half, and the Mountaineers had a 48-41 lead. It really felt like WVU was about to take firm control of the game, especially with how well the offense had been playing. Unfortunately, they went three-and out.

(4th, 9:03) DPI on Chams Diagne on 3rd and 10 — 52.5%

Diagne wasn't super handsy on this play, but was out of postion and did make contact and with it being slightly underthrown, the flag came out. This has happened to him a few times this year on deep balls and this one really took a bite out of the momentum WVU had drummed up. Instead of getting off the field, it kept the drive alive and eventually resulted in Tech kicking a field goal.

(4th, 8:00) Incomplete pass on 3rd & long, force a FG attempt — 69.7%

This was a handful of plays after the Diagne DPI. At this point in the game, holding the Red Raiders to three felt like a massive win for the defense because it allowed WVU to keep the lead and give the offense a chance to back down and answer.

(4th, 7:07) Cam Cook stuffed on 3rd & 1 — 55.5%

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If the o-line blocked up this play better and Cook is able to move the chains, West Virginia is sitting in a really good spot. I was a little surprised Rich Rod didn't go for it on 4th and short and he admitted in the postgame press conference that he probably would have if he had to do it again, but it isn't an easy decision to go for it on your own 34-yard line.

(4th, 4:46) Castellanos' pass incomplete on 3rd & 3 — 74.4%

Not much to discuss here because this sets up what happens next, but this is when WVU's win probability was at its highest.

(4th, 4:29) Castellanos' prayer on 4th down caught for 26 yards — 45%

A near 30% drop in win probability following the 4th down heave from Castellanos. If that ball falls incomplete, WVU has the ball on the Texas Tech 48, up four, with not a whole lot of time left. West Virginia's secondary didn't make a play on the ball all night, but this is the one that mattered the most if you ask me.

(4th, 3:40) Castellanos 16-yard run to the WVU 7 — 28.1%

This 2nd & 7 run set up the touchdown pass to give Tech the lead. When this play happened, it felt inevitable that the Red Raiders would find pay dirt.

Two bonus plays

Mike Hawkins sacked on 4th down with two minutes left

Nick Krahe got bullied, which flushed Hawkins out to his left. He didn't get a throw off, and it resulted in a turnover on downs. I'm sure he'd like to have that one back just to throw it up and have a chance for someone to come down with it but if you rewatch how he had roll out of the pocket, it was going to be tough to even get turned and chuck something up. This play was on the protection.

Hawkins sacked for a safety

Krahe once again got beaten badly, which pushed him into Hawkins' lap. He tried to bounce out but was tripped up for a safety. It looked like Ryan Ward and Cyrus Traugh were open, but with the pressure barreling down on him, he was worried about not getting sacked. If the protection holds up for just a smidge longer, Hawkins probably delivers a strike and the Mountaineers get their heels off their own end zone.

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