What the FPI Matchup Predictor Says About WVU vs. Oklahoma State

It's been a long time since there's been a massive game in Morgantown, but that's what we have this weekend as West Virginia gets set to play host to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have bounced back strongly since their disappointing season-opening loss.

The Mountaineers are coming off the heels of a dominant second half showing against the then 25th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers, resulting in a 38-27 victory.

Can WVU reach 4-0 for the first time since 2018? If so, it will be just the eighth time this century they've hit that mark to begin a season.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Oklahoma State

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, the Mountaineers have a 59.7% chance to remain unbeaten and collect their first win over Oklahoma State in Morgantown since 2013. The Cowboys have a 40.3% chance to hand WVU its first loss of the season and move to 3-1 on the year themselves.

Too high? Too low? Just Right?

Sep 19, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez along the sideline during the fourth quarter against the Virginia Cavaliers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Nearly 60% seems a little high. I was expecting 55/45, with the lean still being toward West Virginia, so it's at least in the neighborhood of where I thought it would be.

What makes this game difficult to gauge is not knowing which Oklahoma State team will show up in Morgantown. Will it be the one that could only put up 10 points on Tulsa? Is it the one that out-gained Oregon 554-281? Or does the true identity of this team lie somewhere in between?

What we do know is that this will be the first time that the Cowboys will play in a hostile environment where the crowd is not on their side. How do they handle communication up front? How does QB Drew Mestemaker operate in pressure situations? And how do they respond if/when they hit adversity? That's a lot of unknowns, many of which lead you to think West Virginia has the slight edge.

Mestemaker gets the ball out extremely quickly, but if the Mountaineers are able to get to him and generate pressure numbers like they have all year, you'd have to think that game tilts heavily in WVU's favor.

The Mountaineers and Cowboys will kick off the action at 7 p.m. ET from Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in front of what is expected to be a capacity crowd. The game will be televised on FS1.

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