WVU Has a Clear Advantage Against Virginia's D — If It Can Reach This Situation Repeatedly

Running the football is what West Virginia is built on. Don't expect that to change this week against Virginia.

But throwing the ball around a little bit more is something that has to happen, and we've talked about it a bunch this week since we've yet to really see Rich Rodriguez open up the playbook, and he'll absolutely need to if he wants a chance of pulling off the upset.

We know the Mountaineers will throw it more, but when is the best time to do it? And how much?

The latter will be determined by the success of the ground game or lack thereof. When to sling it, though? Well, the numbers tell you: earlier in a set of downs, the better.

Now, before I rattle off some of these stats, keep in mind that it is a small sample size of two games. Also, a defense's completion percentage allowed doesn't always improve by the down. For a lot of teams, that's the case, but not everyone. To show just how much better Virginia's pass defense gets, I attached their national ranking on each down.

The numbers...

Sep 11, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Kam Robinson (5) looks on during the second quarter against the Norfolk State Spartans at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

1st down: 66% of passes completed | 82nd nationally
2nd down: 55% of passes completed | 36th nationally
3rd down: 38% of passes completed | 14th nationally

Running it on first down to stay ahead of the chains is a good idea in theory, but against this defense, it's not going to work in your favor very often.

Virginia is allowing 2.3 yards per carry, regardless of down and distance. First down is the most successful at 2.7 yards, which tells you that working the quick game through the air might be more productive.

Don't expect WVU to take many deep shots on first down, if any at all. They are going to want to find easy completions to stay on schedule and be in a manageable situation on 3rd down. Which, by the way, is where the Cavaliers really bow up.

They are holding teams to a 26% conversion rate on third downs through their first two games, and if Rich Rod wants to move the chains on the ground, you're not going to do it in 3rd-and-medium situations like they've been able to do the last two weeks, albeit twice. It may only be seven attempts, but Virginia has not allowed a first down on the ground when it is 3rd and 4 or longer.

The encouraging thing here is that West Virginia's dynamic duo of Mike Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook are by far the best QB/RB rushing threat the Hoos will have faced. They are going to win some of those down-and-distances running the ball, too.

Reaching the sweet spot...

West Virginia University running back Cam Cook | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

Every offense strives to be in third-and-short, but that doesn't mean they all have success when they get there.

West Virginia, when it reaches 3rd and short-three yards, has moved the sticks eight times on the ground on 10 carries. That ranks seventh nationally, and three of the teams listed above them have played one more game.

Virginia, meanwhile, has allowed four rushing first downs on 3rd and short-three yards on five attempts, ranking 90th nationally.

It's going to be super important for the Mountaineers to get in position to run the ball on third down because they are highly successful in those situations, coupled with Virginia being vulnerable there and absolutely lockdown against the run on 3rd and 4+.

So again, it goes back to having trust in Mike Hawkins Jr. to throw the ball, particularly early, and getting the offense in the sweet spot on 3rd and short.

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