2026 Wisconsin football stakes rankings: The litmus tests

These three games aren't necessarily must-win, but they'll provide some of the clearest signs of the program's progress in 2026

Nov 22, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell is escorted off the field as fans storm the field following a 27-10 win over the Illinois Fighting Illini at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images | Kayla Wolf-Imagn Images

In the last edition of this series, I listed the games in conference play that are essentially must-wins, but similar to the first edition, don’t have the rivalry juice or quality of opponent to be how we assess Luke Fickell’s fourth season. 

Of today’s three games, two of them are by no means must-win, but even if they end up losses, will tell us far more than matchups with teams in the lower echelon of the Big Ten.

6. Sept. 6 vs. Notre Dame (at Lambeau Field)

For the people who have this game higher on their lists, I totally get it. A season-opener at a historic venue against one of the sport’s premier programs is a grand opportunity for Wisconsin to break back onto the national scene in a positive manner. 

I want the Badgers to open the season with a bang and win this just as much as the next person, but trying to remain realistic, I see it as a “see where we’re at” type of game.

If it does somehow result in a win, the outlook of the season changes drastically. At this point, however, we’re looking at a team that just needs to win some games, not a College Football Playoff team, and a loss to a team as good as Notre Dame, in non-conference action, doesn’t hurt much.

Wisconsin linebacker T.J. Watt (42) basks in the cheers of fans after the Lambeau College Classic football game on Saturday, Sept. 3, 2016 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Badgers stunned fifth-ranked LSU, 16-14. | Mark Hoffman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Big Ten matchups, especially the rivalries, are more important than this game in my eyes, despite the buzz around it. What I will ask after this game is, did Wisconsin compete? 

It certainly feels more winnable than the game at Alabama with a backup quarterback in 2025, but it’s similar in the sense that you’re facing one of the best teams in the country in a game you’re not expected to win. Although, in that game, it didn’t really feel like the Badgers belonged. I don’t need a win in this game, but if it feels like Wisconsin is out of the game quickly as it was in Tuscaloosa, it may raise some concerns.

5. Oct. 3 vs. Michigan State

There’s at least one game each season that is surprisingly significant, typically against a team that either surprises people, or isn’t very good. I labeled the game at Purdue as a potential trap game in the previous article, and this is the game I could see being a let-down at Camp Randall. Avoiding that let-down is one of the more crucial tasks this season.

Similar to UCLA, which was mentioned in the last article, Michigan State is a proud program in a rough patch. Like I said about Bob Chesney, I think Pat Fitzgerald could right the ship in East Lansing, but for Fickell, you can’t let a rebuilding program walk into your building and beat you in a make-or-break year.

Besides the Rutgers matchup, this is probably the most winnable home game on the schedule, which is what gives it the let-down potential. Additionally, Fitzgerald has been a thorn in Wisconsin’s side in the past. He’s with a new program, and Wisconsin is an entirely different program, but that’s the kind of thing that sneaks up on you unexpectedly. 

This remains a game the Badgers must, and should win, but it’s also the game that has potential to be similar to the Maryland loss in 2025. Fickell is on thin ice, and another loss in front of your own fans to a team everyone expects you to beat would be a low I don’t see him recovering from. 

4. Sept. 26 at Penn State

Apr 25, 2026; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach Matt Campbell answers questions from the media following the Penn State Blue-White Spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Like I said about the Notre Dame game, a date with Penn State in Happy Valley doesn’t have to result in a win for Fickell to keep his job, but it will be telling of the program’s process. I do think this game is far more winnable than the game at Lambeau, but remaining realistic, it’s still not one I’d count on Wisconsin winning.

James Franklin was a polarizing figure for the Nittany Lions. On one hand, he was fired mid-season coming off a College Football Playoff semifinal berth, but on the other hand, his firing surprised very few people. Matt Campbell had a quality first offseason with the program, and I expect Penn State to be good, but not a top-four team in the country, leaving the door open for the Badgers to hang around in this game.

Without having seen Fickell take on the league’s best teams with his starter at the most important position in football, it’s difficult to predict how competitive the Badgers can be if all goes according to plan and Colton Joseph plays in this game. Regardless, Wisconsin needs to compete in this contest to show real progress.

Fans want to see the program looking like it belongs with the top-tier Big Ten teams again, so even if Wisconsin doesn’t win at Penn State, being competitive would be an extremely positive sign.