The Badgers' Rotation Adjustment That Could Define March Madness

When the Badgers start their NCAA Tournament run, all signs point to the return of starting center Nolan Winter.

The junior seven-footer has missed the past four games for Wisconsin, and in that time, the Badgers surprisingly pulled off a 3-1 record, beating Purdue in Mackey Arena and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament in the process.

Still, Winter's return looms large for the No. 5 seed in the West region of March Madness. He's the Badgers' defensive centerpiece in the paint, leading the team in rebounds (8.6) and blocks (1.2). With his rim protection and the spacing he provides with his ability to hit the three, Winter is easily Wisconsin's best — and crucially, best defensive — forward. The Badgers proved what they could still do without him. His return could push them over the top.

Nolan Winter — The return of an injured Nolan winter looms large for Wisconsin. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In Winter's absence, Wisconsin trotted out the following starting five:

Nick Boyd (PG), John Blackwell (SG), Andrew Rohde (SF), Austin Rapp (PF) Aleksas Bieliauskas (C).

Bielauskas moved to the five, and Rapp slid in at the four. And while both players certainly played admirably and demonstrated significant growth since the start of the season, with Bieliauskas especially dialing up his rebounding efforts, this worked largely because both players got scorching hot from three-point range.

In the four games Winter missed, Rapp shot 41.9 percent from distance, including four triples against Purdue and six triples against Michigan. Bieliauskas, meanwhile, was even hotter, hitting 47.4 percent of his long-range shots in that span.

Now, as Wisconsin gears up for what it hopes is a fruitful and extended March Madness run, head coach Greg Gard has a difficult choice to make given Winter's impending return.

Which forward does Gard send to the bench?

Wisconsin Badgers forward Austin Rapp (22) reacts during overtime at United Center. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

After Rapp lost his starting job in early December, Bieliauskas replaced him and slid in next to Winter in the Badgers' frontcourt. Playing alongside Winter as a starter, the Lithuanian freshman averaged a modest 4.7 points and 3.9 rebounds, while shooting 42.2 percent from the floor and 34.0 percent from three.

When Winter went down, and Bieliauskas' minutes — and responsibility within the offense — spiked, he averaged 10.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 46.4 from the floor and 47.4 from distance.

Then there's Rapp, who appears completely re-juvinated since re-entering the starting five in Winter's stead. He averaged 11.5 points and 5.3 rebounds in that time frame, posting 39/88/42 shooting splits.

Rapp is the hot hand who teams will be on red alert for after his explosion against Michigan. Bieliauskas is the steadier presence who offers more rebounding but potentially less scoring upside.

Both players have made an excellent case to remain in the starting five upon Winter's return. Gard's decision may be matchup-based; for instance, Wisconsin's first-round opponent High Point is a smaller team, with its tallest starter at 6-foot-8.

Still, how the Badgers deploy their bigs, all of whom have earned the right to play, will be fascinating strategically and could define Wisconsin's 2026 March Madness run.