Preview: Why losing to Purdue isn't the worst thing for the Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin closes the Big Ten regular season in one of the conference's toughest venues, heading to Mackey Arena to play No.15 Purdue this afternoon.

Here is a look at both teams and a prediction for this afternoon's contest.

Wisconsin (21-9, 13-6 Big Ten) vs. No.15 Purdue (23-7, 13-6 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Saturday, March 7, 3 p.m.
Arena – Mackey Arena
TV – CBS (Spero Dedes and Jim Spanarkel)
Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch)
Coaches - Greg Gard at Wisconsin (234-126 in his 11th season). Matt Painter (494-222 in his 21st season, 519-227 in his 22nd overall season)
Series – Purdue leads 115-76; 74-20 in West Lafayette, Ind.
Point Spread – Purdue -8.5

Wisconsin closes the regular season this afternoon at Mackey Arena against No.15 Purdue. Here's how to watch, listen, and stream the game, the betting lines, and #Badgers things to know https://t.co/aO42A9OCjO
— Benjamin Worgull (@TheBadgerNation) March 7, 2026

Wisconsin probable starters

2 Nick Boyd (6-3 Senior Guard, 20.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.9 apg)
7 Andrew Rohde (6-6 Senior Guard, 6.0 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg)
25 John Blackwell (6-4 Junior Guard, 18.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.4 apg)
*31 Nolan Winter (6-11 Junior Forward, 13.3 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.5 apg)
32 Aleksas Bieliauskas (6-10 Freshman Forward, 4.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.7 apg)
Off the bench
0 Braeden Carrington (6-5 Senior Guard, 8.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.0 apg)
22 Austin Rapp (6-10 Sophomore Forward, 9.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 apg)
23 Will Garlock (7-0 Freshman Center, 1.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.8 apg)
*-questionable with ankle injury
Player to watch
Blackwell has a pair of double-digit scoring games at Mackey Arena, scoring 18 points (2-3 3FGs in 2024 and posting 11 points at Purdue in 2025.

Cue the @CBSSportsCBB music 🎶
Badgers 🆚 Boilermakers
⏰ 3 p.m. CT
📍 Mackey Arena
📺 @CBS
🔗 https://t.co/ikWLeUIjmT pic.twitter.com/zLdlaHOEVd
— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) March 7, 2026

Purdue probable starters

0 C.J. Cox (6-3 Sophomore Guard, 8.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg)
2 Fletcher Loyer (6-5 Senior Guard, 13.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.9 apg)
3 Braden Smith (6-0 Senior Guard, 14.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 8.7 apg)
4 Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9 Senior Forward, 13.3 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.7 apg)
45 Oscar Cluff (6-11 Senior Center, 9.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Off the bench
2 Daniel Jacobsen (7-4 Sophomore Center, 6.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 0.6 apg)
14 Jack Benter (6-6 R-Freshman Guard, 4.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.8 apg)
17 Omer Mayer (6-4 Freshman Guard, 5.7 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 1.3 apg)
24 Gicarri Harris (6-3 Sophomore Guard, 5.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.9 apg)
Player to watch
Loyer is shooting 50.0/47.6/88.9 for his career against Wisconsin. He had a team-high 20 points in January's win in Madison, as all five Boilermakers starters reached double figures.

Series notes

Wisconsin is 2-1 in its last three trips to Mackey Arena (wins in Jan. 2022, Feb. 2025).

Since the calendar flipped to the year 2000, Purdue leads the series 23-22, while Wisconsin has outscored Purdue by a 14-point margin (2,974 to 2,958). Over the last 10 meetings, the series is tied at five.

The 16-point win was the first game decided by more than 10 points since Jan. 24, 2020, a 70-51 Purdue victory.

Even though Nolan Winter is listed as day-to-day, the Wisconsin Badgers will have to get creative if his ankle injury lingers, especially with limited experience in the frontcourt https://t.co/kwjNcq3gyD
— Benjamin Worgull (@TheBadgerNation) March 5, 2026

Wisconsin notes

Wisconsin is 1-1 in the second matchup of a home-and-home series this season. The Badgers beat Minnesota, 67-63, in Madison on Jan.28, and lost at Ohio State, 86-69, in Columbus on Feb.17.

UW is averaging 11.4 3-pointers per game, which ranks sixth in the NCAA. UW is 18-3 this year when making 10+ 3FGs.

UW is shooting 77.9 percent from the free-throw line, which ranks third in the Big Ten Conference and 17th nationally. It also would be the third-best clip in UW history.

Wisconsin is first in the Big Ten and fourth in the country in turnover percentage with a 12.9 percent clip. UW is 18-5 this year in games when they commit 12 or fewer turnovers in a game.

Purdue notes

Purdue is averaging 81.9 points per game, the second-highest total of the Matt Painter era behind the 2023-24 team (82.3 PPG) that advanced to the National Championship game.

The Boilermakers are also shooting 50.0 percent from the field, their highest percentage in a season since the 1989-90 season (52.2 percent).

The Boilermakers are on pace to shatter the NCAA record for assist-to-turnover ratio in a season, posting a 2.15 ratio (current record: 2.07 by Gonzaga, 2024-25 season).

In Purdue's 23 wins this season, Purdue is holding opponents to 42.0 percent from the field and 30.4 percent from 3-point range. In Purdue's seven losses, foes are shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 43.3 percent from long distance.

Prediction

No news on Winter is probably good news, as all we know is the junior center is listed as day-to-day after suffering a nasty-looking ankle injury with 7:01 remaining of Wisconsin's win against Maryland on Wednesday. It'll be a big surprise to see Winter on the floor this afternoon, but also because he wasn't able to put any weight on his leg as he was helped to the locker room but for the reason is this game doesn't carry a lot of weight for the Badgers' postseason position.

From an NCAA Tournament perspective, unless the Badgers go on a run in Chicago, ascending to a No.5 seed, Wisconsin feels solidly placed in a No.6 or No.7 category. A Quad 1A road loss isn't going to hurt them, and a Quad 1A win won't suddenly vault them up a seed line.

In the immediate future, Wisconsin will be seeded fourth, fifth, or sixth in next week's Big Ten Tournament, with the fourth seed playing in Friday's quarterfinals and the other two starting their tournament on Thursday.

The only way UW gets the four seed and triple bye is by beating Purdue and seeing Illinois lose at Maryland on Sunday. The Illini is No.1 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, while Maryland is 141st in adjusted defense. The odds of the Illini losing are slim.

The Badgers would be locked into the five seed with a win, meaning they would have to beat the No.12 or No.13 seed, knock off Illinois, and get through No.1-seed Michigan in the semifinals. While the Badgers are the only Big Ten team to knock off Michigan this year, doing so in Ann Arbor on January 10, they had to shoot 63.0 percent in the second half and 58.5 percent (10-for-17) from three-point range to squeak out a two-point win.

Beating Illinois in Chicago and getting past a bona fide national title contender a second time just to make Sunday's title game is daunting.

However, the Badgers would be guaranteed the sixth spot if they lose. If Nebraska beats Iowa at home, Wisconsin will face either Nebraska or Michigan State in the quarterfinals and likely the other in the semifinals. In other words, UW would be facing a Spartans team it beat by 21 on February 13 and a Huskers team that has started to level out after their hot start.

There's no doubt Wisconsin is going to play to win, and the staff and players will likely never admit it, but a loss might actually be the best path for the Badgers to win a championship.

I expect Wisconsin to play with more fire and energy than they did in the first meeting, but not having Winter's minutes and production will really hurt against Purdue's frontcourt and physicality.

Prediction: Purdue by 11
Worgull's Prediction: 22-8 (17-13 ATS)
Points off Prediction: 358 (11.9 ppg)