The biggest February games for each Big Ten team

College basketball has reached the last full month of the regular season, the home stretch for teams to either enhance or potentially sink their chances at a conference title and NCAA Tournament seeding.

There's no debate that the top five teams in the league battling for the regular season conference crown - Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue - are locks for the postseason. All five schools are in the top 15 of the NET and have a combined 33-13 record in Quad-1 games (six of the losses coming against one another).

If the tournament started today, Iowa (NET 19, 7-5 in Quad 1/2) and Wisconsin (NET 43, 7-6 in Quad 1/2) would be in the field, Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA, and USC would be sweating, and the rest would need a miracle.

In week 13 of the power rankings, we pick each team's biggest game in February that could impact their season.

1, Michigan Wolverines (20-1, 10-1) Previous: 1

At Illinois (Feb.27): In prime position for a No.1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and their first Big Ten title since 2021, the Wolverines have to deal with going to No.12 Purdue, a neutral-site game at No.4 Duke, and finishing the month at No.5 Illinois for a primetime Friday night game. As well as the Wolverines have performed, evidenced by their consecutive victories over top-10 opponents Nebraska and Michigan State, they are predicted to be slight underdogs in all three games.

Michigan has lost nine straight to Illinois dating back to 2019. The way both of these teams are currently playing, this might be the game of the year in the league.

Up Next: Tonight vs. Penn State

2, Illinois Fighting Illini (20-3, 11-1) Previous: 3

At Michigan State (Feb.7): Now winners of 12 straight after thumping Northwestern by 40 last night, Illinois has validated itself with consecutive road wins over top five opponents. Illinois' offense is the most efficient in the country, but the 78-69 victory at Lincoln was all about defense.

Illinois held the Huskers to four field goals in the first 13 minutes of the second half and only four threes after halftime, helping spark an 18-8 run out of the locker room that gave them all the momentum.

Illinois is 4-3 in Quad-1A games, representing the elite top-tier games on the schedule. The Michigan game at the end of the month is big, but winning at the Breslin Center for a third top-10 road win in two weeks could help the Illini get their preferred NCAA Tournament path with a first-round site in St. Louis and a regional in Chicago.

Up Next: Friday at No.10 Michigan State

3, Nebraska Cornhuskers (20-2, 9-2) Previous: 2

vs. Purdue (2/10): After a valiant short-handed effort came up short at Michigan, Nebraska was outperformed on both ends of the floor in the final 20 minutes against the Illini. The Huskers are still a solid team but were exposed in a way they hadn't been all season. Purdue is the last-ranked team on the Huskers' schedule, and it comes at home. If the Huskers can return Rienk Mast to an all-conference level (5 points, 2-for-10 vs. Illinois) and knock off the struggling Boilers, Nebraska could be in position to clinch a piece of its first conference title.

Up Next: Saturday at Rutgers

4, Purdue Boilermakers (18-4, 8-3) Previous: 5

vs. No.2 Michigan (2/17): Purdue smoked Maryland by 30 on the weekend to break a three-game skid, giving them some momentum into a daunting stretch of five games (two home, three road) against NCAA Tournament teams. If Purdue wants to validate its legitimacy, which has started to be brought into question, defending the home court against one of the nation's top teams with the Wolverines is a good way to do it.

Up Next: Saturday vs. Oregon

5, Michigan State Spartans (19-4, 9-3) Previous: 4

At Purdue (2/26): The Spartans have one of the nation's best defenses and have no losses outside Quad-1, but the one thing Michigan State is missing is a quality win on the road. Michigan State's road wins are Oregon, Penn State, Rutgers, and Washington, but the Spartans lost 58-56 at Lincoln in their lone roadie against an above .500 Big Ten team. It got worse on Wednesday when they played poorly in their 76-73 loss to Minnesota, a game that was more about Jeremy Fears Jr.'s perceived dirty plays than the Gophers playing harder and with more energy than the Spartans.

The road doesn't get easier with a trip to Wisconsin next Friday and to Mackey.

Up Next: Friday vs. No.5 Illinois

6, Wisconsin Badgers (16-6, 8-3) Previous: 6

vs. Michigan State (2/13): February is a gauntlet for the Badgers with six of their seven games being Quad-1 contests, including the first five in a row and only two home games. It feels like surviving the month with a 4-3 record would be acceptable, and anything more than that would be a huge accomplishment. UW is 12-2 at home this season and is 27-3 in home games over the last two seasons, so defending the home court is imperative.

The Spartans might be one of the more physically imposing teams in the league. Winning a game like this would say a lot about the Badgers.

Up Next: Saturday at Indiana

7, Iowa Hawkeyes (17-5, 7-4) Previous: 7

vs. Purdue (2/14): Iowa currently sits comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field, a credit to the turnaround Ben McCollum has done in year one on the job. He's certainty received a lot of help from his guy Bennett Stirtz, who scored a career-high 32 at Oregon Sunday and is likely a first or second-team all-conference pick.

However, the Hawkeyes still have four games against top-10 opponents in their final seven games of the season. Iowa's home game against Purdue starts a three-game stretch that will see the Boilermakers and Huskers come to Carver-Hawkeye and then a trip to Madison. Getting that first win would be a huge momentum boost and could set the tone for the closing stretch.

Up Next: Sunday at Oregon

8, USC Trojans (17-6, 6-6) Previous: 8

at Ohio State (2/11): The Trojans have won three out of four with two Quad-1 wins and were a rimmed-out three-pointer from picking up a third at Iowa. In Tuesday's win over Indiana, freshman Alijah Arenas scored a career-high 29 points in just his fifth collegiate game, helping USC overcome the loss of linchpin guard Chad Baker-Mazara.

The Trojans are clearly on the bubble, so knocking off a fellow bubble team in Ohio State on the road to continue their current hot streak (as well as UCLA later in the month) would be a major coup for Eric Musselman's group.

Up Next: Sunday at Penn State

9, Indiana Hoosiers (15-8, 6-6) Previous 9

vs. Wisconsin (2/7): It was one step forward and one step back for the Hoosiers in California, hanging on for a double overtime win at UCLA only to stub their toe against USC. The Hoosiers have challenging back-to-back road games at Illinois and Purdue, but Indiana makes the tournament if it beats teams with similar profiles as them, like Wisconsin in Assembly Hall.

One thing for certain is Indiana needs more than Lamar Wilkerson. He finished with 33 points on 55 percent shooting (11 of 20) against the Trojans but was the only IU player in double figures.

Up Next: Saturday vs. Wisconsin

10, UCLA Bruins (16-7, 8-4) Previous: 11

vs. Illinois (2/21) The Bruins might be the most talented, inconsistent team in the country, evidenced by how poorly they played against Indiana and how flawlessly they played Tuesday against Rutgers. UCLA is 1-3 in Big Ten road games outside the West Coast, with the only win coming at Penn State. That doesn't bode well for their road trip to Michigan to play the Spartans and Wolverines in nine days.

UCLA's only signature win was over Purdue at Pauley Pavilion when it held the Boilermakers to 67 points. The Bruins' best chance to get off the bubble will be replicate that performance when the Illini visit later this month.

Up Next: Saturday vs. Washington

11, Ohio State Buckeyes (14-7, 6-5), Previous: 10

vs. USC (2/11): The Buckeyes haven't played since losing to fellow bubble team Wisconsin and February is littered with six Quad 1 or Quad 2 games after tonight. Of those games, the Buckeyes have less than a 30 percent chance in four of them (Michigan, vs Virginia in Nashville, at Michigan State, and at Iowa). ESPN analytics give OSU a 72.2 percent chance to beat the Trojans, who they are currently competing with for one of the last at-large spots in the field. Considering this is the only meeting between the schools, this is a must-win for Ohio State.

Up Next: Tonight at Maryland

12, Minnesota Gophers (11-12, 4-8): Previous: 12

at Washington (2/14): It's obvious that the Gophers are better in Niko Medved's first year, but the lack of depth has hurt them late in games. Consider this, the Gophers seven-game losing streak included a one-point OT loss vs. USC, a buzzer beater against Wisconsin, tied in the second half at Illinois, OT at Ohio State, up eight against Nebraska, up 20 against Wisconsin, and a buzzer-beater at Penn State.

It's home win over Michigan State is their third top-25 victory at home this season. With a manageable closing stretch, if Minnesota gets to 17 wins and picks up a Quad-1 win along the way, the Gophers will be in some kind of postseason tournament. That would be a huge step in the right direction.

Up Next: Sunday vs. Maryland

13, Washington Huskies (12-11, 4-8) Previous: 13

at UCLA (2/7): The Huskies' best conference victory is a road win at USC back in December, and there aren't many more opportunities to pick up a quality win after UCLA. If Washington wants to get itself back into the at-large mix, especially after missing out on a home Quad-1 win against Iowa on Wednesday, it has to win in Los Angeles for a second time.

Up Next: Saturday at UCLA

14, Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-14, 2-10): Previous: 14

Nebraska (2/7): Losing by three at USC and then by 32 at UCLA was not ideal for Rutgers, which has now lost six straight. The Scarlet Knights have a four/four home/road split over their final eight games and need to start performing to get a postseason bid of some kind. Rutgers plays better at home and usually gets a win over a top-end team each year. They haven't done it yet, and Nebraska is up next...

Up Next: Saturday vs. Nebraska

15, Penn State Nittany Lions (10-12, 1-10) Previous: 16

vs. Rutgers (2/18) Penn State broke an eight-game losing streak and got its first high-major win of the season on February 1. There are more winnable games down the stretch for them, but likely not tonight.

Up Next: Tonight at No.2 Michigan

16, Northwestern Wildcats (10-13, 2-10) Previous: 15

at Indiana (2/24): Since starting 5-1 with a neutral-site win over South Carolina and a road win at DePaul, the Wildcats have bottomed out, with the low point being an 84-44 thrashing at Illinois on Wednesday. Northwestern is likely to finish 10th place or worse in the league for the ninth time in Chris Collins' 13 seasons.

Up Next: Sunday at Iowa

17, Maryland Terrapins (8-13, 1-9) Previous: 18

at Rutgers (2/15): The Terps have a chance to go 3-0 against the Big Ten's East Coast schools. At least that's something they can hang their hats on, right?

Up next: Tonight vs. Ohio State

18, Oregon Ducks (8-14, 1-10) Previous: 17

vs. Minnesota (2/17): Oregon was picked to finish fifth in the preseason media poll. Injuries have turned that into one big oops.

Up Next: Saturday at Purdue

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