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Wisconsin Badgers look to replicate Penn State's playbook to upset No.2 Michigan

Wisconsin looks for its first true road victory of the season when the Badgers face one No.2 Michigan.
Benjamin Worgull|
Michigan guard Tre Donaldson (3) grabs a rebound against Wisconsin forward Nolan Winter (31) during the first half of Big Ten Tournament championship game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind. on Sunday, March 16, 2025.
Michigan guard Tre Donaldson (3) grabs a rebound against Wisconsin forward Nolan Winter (31) during the first half of Big Ten Tournament championship game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind. on Sunday, March 16, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Wisconsin Badgers

Wisconsin is leaving the comforts of home for the first time in 2026 and playing its first road game in a month when the Badgers take on No.2 Michigan this afternoon

Here is a look at both teams and a prediction for this afternoon's contest.

Wisconsin (10-5, 2-2 Big Ten) vs. No.2 Michigan (14-0, 4-0 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Saturday, January 10, 12 p.m. CT
Arena – Crisler Center
TV – CBS (Kevin Harlin, Bill Raftery, and Robbie Hummel)
Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch)
Coaches - Greg Gard at Wisconsin (223-122 in his 11th season). Dusty May (41-10 in his 2nd season, 167-79 in his 8th overall season)
Series – Michigan leads 98-78; Michigan leads 58-25 in Ann Arbor.
Point Spread – Michigan -19.5

Wisconsin probable starters

2 Nick Boyd (6-3 Senior Guard, 19.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.2 apg)
7 Andrew Rohde (6-6 Senior Guard, 7.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.5 apg)
25 John Blackwell (6-4 Junior Guard, 17.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
31 Nolan Winter (6-11 Junior Forward, 14.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.7 apg)
32 Aleksas Bieliauskas (6-10 Freshman Forward, 4.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.8 apg)
Off the bench
0 Braeden Carrington (6-5 Senior Guard, 5.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.9 apg)
5 Jack Janicki (6-5 Sophomore Guard, 2.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.1 apg)
22 Austin Rapp (6-10 Sophomore Forward, 9.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.9 apg)
23 Will Garlock (7-0 Freshman Center, 1.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Player to watch
Winter is shooting 73.6 percent from two, which ranks 20th nationally and third in the Big Ten conference behind Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg (75.8) and Ohio State's Brandon Noel (75.0).

Michigan probable starters

3 Elliot Cadeau (6-1 Junior Guard, 10.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 5.8 apg)
4 Nimari Burnett (6-5 Graduate Guard, 9.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.4 apg)
15 Aday Mara (7-3 Junior Center, 11.0 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.7 apg)
21 Morez Johnson Jr. (6-9 Sophomore Forward, 15.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.2 apg)
23 Yaxel Lendeborg (6-9 Graduate Forward, 14.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 3.4 apg)
Off the bench
1 Trey McKenney (6-4 Freshman Guard, 11.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.3 apg)
2 LJ Carson (6-2 Sophomore Guard, 9.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.7 apg)
11 Roddy Gayle Jr. (6-5 Senior Guard, 11.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.1 apg)
42 Will Tschetter (6-8 Graduate Forward, 5.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.0 apg)
Player to watch
Lendeborg has 10 double-figure scoring games, has recorded at least five rebounds in 12 contests, and has produced 10 games with three or more assists.

Series notes

After winning just twice against Wisconsin over a decade-long span (2007 to 2017; 19 games), the Wolverines have flipped the script -- going 10-4 over the last 14 meetings, highlighted by a current four-game winning streak.

In the most recent matchup, Michigan erased an 11-point second-half deficit with 13 minutes to play and closed on an 11-2 run to beat Wisconsin, 59-53, to capture the 2025 Big Ten Tournament championship at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

In the last meeting at Crisler Center, U-M trailed 48-44 with just under 14 minutes remaining before ripping off an 8-0 run to take control. The burst fueled a decisive 14-3 stretch as the Wolverines never gave the lead back in a 72-68 victory.

UW looks for its first win in Ann Arbor since defeating Michigan 81-74 on Dec. 27, 2020.

Under head coach Greg Gard, the Badgers are 6-10 overall against the Wolverines.

Since 2001-02, when Bo Ryan and Greg Gard (then associate head coach) began coaching at Wisconsin, the all-time series between the Badgers and the Wolverines has began to turn: Prior to 2001-02: Wisconsin trails, 52-82. Since 2001-02: Wisconsin leads, 26-16

Wisconsin notes

UW has collected 15 wins over AP top-10 opponents in 11 seasons under Gard. That includes eight wins over top-5 teams, including a 64-54 win over No.2 Michigan in January 2019.

Of those 15 top-10 wins under Gard, eight have come away from home.

The Badgers are averaging 13.1 fast-break points per game, which ranks fourth in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin ranks 49th in adjusted tempo per KenPom, the third-fastest mark in the Big Ten behind only Michigan (7th) and USC (41st)

Michigan notes

Michigan has won 14 straight decided by four points or fewer. Under Dusty May, U-M is 16-4 in games decided by four points. The two-point win (74-72) at Penn State snapped U-M's streak of 10 consecutive victories by 18-plus points - the longest run since Duke during its 2003-04 season.

The Wolverines are the only team in the Big Ten with five or more players averaging double-digit points. Michigan’s “Big Three” -- Lendeborg (14.7), Johnson Jr. (13.9) and Mara (10.2) - combine to produce 40 percent of U-M’s offense.

Michigan recorded its ninth game with 40+ points in the paint against No. 24 USC, marking the sixth time in the last eight games.

U-M ranks fifth nationally with 20.8 assists per game, which sits second in the Big Ten behind Purdue (20.9). U-M also leads the conference and is fourth nationally with 6.3 blocks per game.

Prediction

Michigan is authoring one of the most dominant seasons in modern college basketball, with 10 wins by 20+ points, including eight by 30+, six by 40+, and one by 50+, along with three victories over nationally ranked opponents.

The height of Michigan's frontcourt is formidable with the 7-4 Mara and 6-9 forwards Johnson and Lendeborg, and combining those with two starting who total 93 assists to 39 turnovers and a deep bench means it's almost unfair, which the majority of teams that have played them have found out.

U-M has seven 100+ point games and ranks second nationally at 95.1 per game.

So, naturally it begs the question, how can Wisconsin replicate what lowly Penn State did to nearly upset Michigan in State College on Tuesday?

"I thought they played hard and kept hanging around," Gard said. "They didn't give Michigan anything easy. They had to work for everything. When you play hard, you make a lot of good things happen, and they did that. They knocked down some shots, so that helped them stay close with them."

The good news is the Wolverines showed they are beatable, something that has happened only twice this season. The bad news is after the Wolverines snuck past TCU, 67-63, in Fort Worth, the Wolverines won eight of their next nine games by 25 points.

While Wisconsin took steps defensively against UCLA, the Bruins were without their best perimeter shooter/hottest scorer and were dealing with a number of other injuries and sickness. Unless the Wolverines get the plague, the Big Ten's best shooting team (52.6 percent) and the nation's best defensive team (34.6 field goal percentage) will be too much for Wisconsin to handle.

Prediction: Michigan by 26
Worgull's Prediction: 13-2 (8-6 ATS)
Points off Prediction: 134 (8.9 ppg)

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Benjamin Worgull
BENJAMIN WORGULL

Benjamin Worgull has covered Wisconsin men's basketball since 2004, having previously written for Rivals, USA Today, 247sports, Fox Sports, the Associated Press, the Janesville Gazette, and the Wisconsin State Journal.

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