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Wisconsin Badgers look to slow Keaton Wagler, high-powered Illinois offense tonight

Wisconsin looks for its second top-10 road win of the season when it faces No.8 Illinois at the State Farm Center tonight.
Benjamin Worgull|
Dec 10, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) drives between Wisconsin Badgers forward Carter Gilmore (7) and Nolan Winter (31) during the first half at State Farm Center.
Dec 10, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) drives between Wisconsin Badgers forward Carter Gilmore (7) and Nolan Winter (31) during the first half at State Farm Center. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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Wisconsin Badgers

Looking for its second top-10 road victory of the season, Wisconsin heads to Champaign to face No.8 Illinois at the State Farm Center tonight.

This will be the first time since the 2015-16 season that Wisconsin will face top-10 teams in back-to-back games, as the Badgers will host the Spartans on Friday.

Illinois is coming off an overtime loss at Michigan State on Saturday night that snapped its 12-game winning streak, the Illini's longest win streak in the last 13 seasons. Prior to the loss, Illinois had won 10 consecutive Big Ten games for the first time since 2022.

Here is a look at both teams, along with a prediction for tonight's contest.

Wisconsin (16-7, 8-4 Big Ten) vs. No.8 Illinois (20-4, 11-2 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Tuesday, February 10, 7 p.m.
Arena – State Farm Center
TV – NBCSN/Peacock (John Fanta and Robbie Hummel)
Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch)
Coaches - Greg Gard at Wisconsin (229-124 in his 11th season). Brad Underwood (185-109 in his ninth season; 294-132 in his 13th season)
Series – Illinois leads 114-88, including 71-28 in Champaign
Point Spread – Illinois -11.5

Wisconsin probable starters

2 Nick Boyd (6-3 Senior Guard, 20.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.7 apg)
7 Andrew Rohde (6-6 Senior Guard, 6.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.8 apg)
25 John Blackwell (6-4 Junior Guard, 18.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.3 apg)
31 Nolan Winter (6-11 Junior Forward, 14.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.8 apg)
32 Aleksas Bieliauskas (6-10 Freshman Forward, 4.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.6 apg)
Off the bench
0 Braeden Carrington (6-5 Senior Guard, 7.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.0 apg)
5 Jack Janicki (6-5 Sophomore Guard, 2.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.2 apg)
22 Austin Rapp (6-10 Sophomore Forward, 8.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.6 apg)
23 Will Garlock (7-0 Freshman Center, 1.1 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 1.0 apg)
Player to watch
Ranking second in the Big Ten with 11 double-doubles this season, Winter is shooting 72.0 percent from inside the arc, which ranks second in the NCAA this year. Winter averaged 10.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two games against Illinois last season.

Illinois probable starters

0 David Mirkovic (6-9 Freshman Forward, 12.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.5 apg)
2 Andrej Stojakovic (6-7 Junior Guard, 13.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.1 apg)
13 Tomislav Ivisic (7-1 Junior Center, 10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg)
15 Jake Davis (6-6 Junior Forward, 5.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.7 apg)
23 Keaton Wagler (6-6 Freshman Guard, 17.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.2 apg)
Off the bench
3 Ben Humrichous (6-9 Graduate Forward, 5.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.8 apg)
44 Zvonimir Ivisic (7-2 Junior Center, 7.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.4 apg)
77 Mihailo Petrovic (6-2 Sophomore Guard, 2.1 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Player to watch
Over his last 16 games, Wagler is averaging 20.3 points on 47 percent shooting and 46 percent from three-point range.

Series notes

This series has recently been filled with streaks. Prior to last season's meeting, Illinois owned a nine-game win streak, but that stretch followed a 15-game win streak by Wisconsin from 2011 to 2019.

Wisconsin's 15 consecutive wins over Illinois marked the longest all-time win streak of any team against the Illini.

The Badgers are 4-4 under Gard at the State Farm Center. That .500 mark is one of the best at Illinois during that stretch, trailing Maryland (6-2) and Penn State (4-3).

Illinois is 38-18 (.679) all-time as a Top 25 team when facing Wisconsin, including wins in the last five meetings vs. the Badgers when ranked.

Wisconsin notes

The Badgers knocked off then-No. 2 Michigan last month. It marked UW's 16th win over a top-10 team and its ninth win over a top-5 team since Greg Gard took over in Dec. 2015.

The Badgers have overcome 10-point deficits in four of their victories in 2026 - at Michigan (Jan. 10), at Minnesota (Jan. 13), vs. Minnesota (Jan. 28), and vs. Ohio State (Jan. 31).

The Badgers rank 12th in the country in attempted 3-pointers, averaging 31.3 attempts per game. That mark leads the Big Ten Conference.

Wisconsin ranks 83rd nationally and third in the Big Ten in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom, trailing only Michigan (10th) and USC (52nd).

Illinois notes

Illinois has clinched a winning Big Ten record for the seventh straight season. Illinois is the only team to finish above .500 in Big Ten play every year since 2019-20.

Illinois has won six straight home games and is 12-1 at State Farm Center this season, the program's best start since also opening 12-1 at home in 2019-20. The Illini are averaging 88.6 points per game at home, with an average scoring margin of +24.2 ppg, and have won 15 straight at home over unranked foes.

Illinois is No. 4 in the Kenpom rankings with an adjusted efficiency margin +33.25. The Illini have had a Kenpom rating of 35th or better each of the last six years under Underwood.

The Illini have knocked down at least 10 triples in 14 of the last 16 games, highlighted by a school-record tying 18 treys in the win at No. 4 Purdue on Jan. 24, and 17 threes in its win last Wednesday vs. Northwestern.

Prediction

Wisconsin has a road victory over the nation's No.1 adjusted defensive efficiency team, but beating the No.1 adjusted offensive efficiency team on the road seems like a monumental task.

Illinois scores from everywhere. The Illini lead the Big Ten averaging 11.2 three-pointers and has made 10+ 3-pointers in a Big Ten-leading 18 games this season. They get to the free-throw line, ranking fifth in the NCAA with a 79.1 free-throw percentage. The Illini attack the glass, having outrebounded its opponent in 20 of 24 games this season and ranking sixth nationally in rebound margin at +10.6 rpg.

Arguably more important, the Illini are balanced with eight different players leading the team in scoring at least once this season (best in the Big Ten).

There are a ton of players for Wisconsin's inconsistent defense to worry about, namely Wagler. The freshman is first in the Big Ten in three-point percentage, fourth in free throw attempts, fifth in free throws made, seventh in total points, and ninth in assist-to-turnover ratio. He's been on a tear over the last month.

Mirkovic is one of only three freshmen in the nation, along with Duke's Cameron Boozer and North Carolina's Caleb Wilson, averaging at least 12.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists; Stojakovic has five games this season with 20+ points; and twin 7-footers Tomislav and Zvinimir Ivisic make things challenging around the rim.

If there's a silver lining of hope, Wisconsin and Illinois have similar offensive scoring outputs over the last 10 games (UW is at 82.3 at 44.5 percent from the field and Illinois is at 80.8 at 44.4 percent). But against a slightly tougher schedule, the Illini have given up 10 points per game less than the Badgers (67.5 to 77.8) over that stretch.

UW had to play a near-perfect second half to knock off Michigan. It'll have to do it again tonight to beat Illinois ... and not fall behind by double digits for a fifth consecutive game and eighth time in the last 11 games.

Prediction: Illinois by 14
Worgull's Prediction: 18-5 (13-10 ATS)
Points off Prediction: 241 (10.5 ppg)

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Benjamin Worgull
BENJAMIN WORGULL

Benjamin Worgull has covered Wisconsin men's basketball since 2004, having previously written for Rivals, USA Today, 247sports, Fox Sports, the Associated Press, the Janesville Gazette, and the Wisconsin State Journal.

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