Wisconsin Badgers still have path to a Big Ten Tournament triple bye

MADISON, Wis. - It may be the second day of March, but the victory nearly two months ago over the No.2 team in the country could prove fruitful for the University of Wisconsin.

With the Big Ten Tournament set to start next Tuesday in Chicago, and teams jockeying for seeding position over their final two regular-season games, the Badgers' 91-88 victory over Michigan on January 10 gives them the edge in countless tiebreakers.

It's the only conference loss for the Wolverines to date, which wrapped up the outright Big Ten title and the No.1 seed after winning at Illinois on Friday night.

Wisconsin's win at Washington clinched at least a double bye, meaning the Badgers (20-9, 12-6 Big Ten) will get a pass into the quarterfinals and play next Thursday at the United Center.

There is still an outside chance the Badgers could climb to the No.3 seed with all the tiebreakers they hold against teams in the top half of the league. In addition to Michigan, Wisconsin holds head-to-head tiebreakers over Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, and UCLA.

UW also holds a tiebreaker over Ohio State because UW went 1-0 against the top overall seed (Michigan) and the Buckeyes went 0-2. It's that reason UW can't fall lower than the seventh seed.

Here's a look at some of the seed scenarios entering the final week of the season.

Wisconsin will be the seventh seed if:

The Badgers lose their final two games to Maryland (Wednesday) and at Purdue (Saturday), and UCLA wins its final two games. The Bruins are one game behind the Badgers in the standings and host Nebraska before playing an injury-rittled USC. The Bruins just beat the Trojans at Pauley Pavilion on Feb.24. A tie with Wisconsin does the Bruins no good, considering they lost, 80-72, in Madison.

Indiana has the highest probability of being the No.10 seed, which would set up a rematch from the one-point Hoosiers win in overtime on February 7.

Wisconsin gets the sixth seed if:

The Badgers have the highest probability of the No.6 seed and would play Thursday’s late game due to multiple pathways.

If UW loses its final two games and UCLA goes 1-1, the Badgers would own the tiebreaker. Even if Ohio State wins its final two games and ties the Badgers and Bruins at 12-8, UW would get the sixth seed based on a 2-1 round-robin record against the other two schools.

If the Badgers beat Maryland, Wisconsin can do no worse than the sixth seed, even if it loses at Purdue.

Washington and USC are the top teams likely to be the No.11 seed, while Rutgers is the likely No.14 seed.

Wisconsin could be the fifth seed if:

Wisconsin loses to Maryland, but the Badgers win at Purdue, which would have to lose its previous game at Northwestern. With both teams having won on the other's home court, the tiebreaker would go to record against the No.1 seed.

If Wisconsin wins both games and Michigan State wins one (vs. Rutgers, at Michigan) and Illinois wins two (vs. Oregon, vs. Maryland), the Badgers would finish alone in fifth.

Minnesota, USC, and Washington are the teams most likely to be seeded 12 or 13.

Wisconsin could be the fourth seed if:

Wisconsin wins its final two games, and Michigan State loses both contests. Both schools would finish at 14-6 in the league and the Badgers would get the higher seed based on UW's 92-71 victory on Feb.13. Should Nebraska lose two games in this scenario, creating a three-way tie in the standings, the Huskers would be the three based on a 2-0 round-robin record, followed by Wisconsin (1-1), and then the Spartans (0-2).

UW would play the winner of the five vs. 12/13 matchup.

Wisconsin could somehow be the third seed if:

Chaos happens. In the event of a three-way tie in the standings between Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin or a four-way tie that includes Nebraska, UW would be the No.3 seed. The Badgers have the best round-robin record between Illinois and Michigan State, but the Huskers are undefeated against the other three teams in this scenario.

UW would play the late game on Friday of the winner between the sixth seed and the 11/14 game.