Wisconsin Enters March Madness with Alarming Trend vs. 12 Seeds

Wisconsin basketball's inability to reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since the 2016-17 season has been well-documented.

But another demon the Badgers must shed if they're going to reach the Sweet 16 this year? A horrific history versus No. 12-seeded opponents. Wisconsin is 1-5 all-time in the NCAA Tournament against No. 12 seeds. The Badgers face No. 12 High Point on Thursday afternoon.

Wisconsin has lost four straight games to No. 12 seeds. Their most recent loss came at the hands of James Madison in the Round of 64 in 2024.

All told, the Badgers have a truly uninsipring history against No. 12 seeds in the NCAA Tournament:

Year	Team	Result	Round
1999	Southwest Missouri State	Loss, 32-43	1st Round
2003	Weber State	Win, 81-74	1st Round
2010	Cornell	Loss, 69-87	2nd Round
2013	Ole Miss	Loss, 46-57	1st Round
2019	Oregon	Loss, 54-72	1st Round
2024	James Madison	Loss, 61-72	1st Round

The No. 12 versus No. 5 games are always trendy upset picks, but the above results display an alarming inability for Wisconsin to beat teams considered significnatly worse, especially in the Round of 64.

The last three times the Badgers have earned a No. 5 seed, they've ducked out of the big dance in the first round.

These losses haven't exactly been close, either. In the Badgers' last three upsets at the hands of No. 12 seeds in the Round of 64, they've lost by an average of 13.3 points. James Madison beat them by 11, Oregon beat them by 18 and Ole Miss won by 11.

Did the Badgers draw the weakest 12 seed?

James Madison Dukes forward T.J. Bickerstaff (3) steals the ball from Wisconsin Badgers forward Steven Crowl (22). | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Wisconsin's regional draw, with Arkansas as a potential Round of 32 matchup and No. 1-seed Arizona lurking around the corner, is rather rough once again. Still, as for the first-round opponent, the Badgers might've lucked out.

Of the four No. 12 seeds in the bracket (High Point, Akron, McNeese State and Northern Iowa), High Point is rated the lowest of all four teams in both the NET (No. 72) and KenPom (No. 92). It's certainly a hot team, having won a national-best 14 straight games, but the Panthers strengths — and weaknesses — appear to play right into the Badgers' hands.

High Point is a small team, ranking 329th nationally in average height and without a starter taller than 6-foot-8. What's more, its calling card (ball security and ability to generate turnovers) are also both areas Wisconsin has thrived this season against much tougher competition.

Ultimately, this is still an extremely winnable game for Wisconsin on paper. But the Badgers have a troubling history of faltering against No. 12 seeds, and they'll need to pick up a win against a 12-seeded team for just the second time ever in order to advance to the Round of 32.